The June 17 FOMC unanimously held the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%. At the first meeting under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, 9 members penciled in additional hikes in the dot plot, pushing the year-end median rate up to 3.8%. Warsh abolished forward guidance, adopted a 130-word statement, and launched five new task forces. Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter suggested "the evidence implies inflation may come in materially lower than the Fed projected," citing falling oil prices and fading tariff effects. Apollo's Torsten Slok, however, cautioned that "the energy path can shift dramatically in just one day," reflecting deep uncertainty.

Despite the hike, USD/JPY climbed to 161.35, sustaining yen weakness, as the U.S.-Japan rate differential (3.45 ppts) continues to support yen carry trades. Global hedge funds have accumulated record-level yen short positions; if the BOJ accelerates rate increases or the Fed pivots to cuts, an unwinding of yen carry trades could trigger a sharp spike in global volatility — a key tail risk.

The major central banks' shared bias toward "higher for longer" continues to exert structural downward pressure on emerging-market currencies.

The ongoing rate inversion between Korea (2.50%) and the U.S. (3.50–3.75%) underpins structural KRW weakness, with USD/KRW hovering around 1,534–1,539. The next policy meeting is July 16.

Markets recovered their post-FOMC losses as technology buying led by semiconductor stocks drove a broad advance. The U.S.-Iran MOU signing provided an additional geopolitical tailwind. The S&P 500 closed at 7,500.58, recovering more than 80 points from the FOMC shock low of 7,420.

President Trump announced via Truth Social an Intel-Apple agreement on domestic U.S. semiconductor design and manufacturing. Intel surged as high as $133.82, and the broader semiconductor ETF (SMH +5.76%) rallied in tandem. Neither company officially confirmed the deal, but the WSJ reported that preliminary discussions had been under way since early May.

The FOMC unanimously held the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%, but 9 members projected at least one 2026 hike in the dot plot. The year-end median projection was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, and Chair Warsh immediately abolished forward guidance, adopting a 130-word statement.

The four-month Hormuz blockade has formally entered a resolution phase. Brent crude fell to $73.77 (-3.94%), and gold dropped to $4,228 (-2.99%), as geopolitical risk premiums were rapidly unwound. VIX plunged -11.06% to 16.40, confirming a risk-on environment.

Ahead of the June 24 earnings release, Micron's guidance was reaffirmed as the largest in company history, sending the stock up over 8%. HBM demand for AI data centers exceeds supply capacity by 50–67%, and gross margins stand at 81%. Following NVIDIA's FY Q1 2027 results ($81.6B), this confirms the semiconductor monetization cycle is in an expansion phase.

On Hormuz reopening expectations, oil is approaching pre-blockade levels (around $72). However, commodity experts including Jeff Currie (Abaxx Markets) warned that "the market is overshooting to the downside," forecasting a bounce within a month. Goldman Sachs' institutional survey shows 66% of respondents expecting further declines — putting bullish experts and institutional consensus in direct conflict.

While the S&P and Nasdaq gained +1.08% and +1.91% respectively, Bitcoin fell -3.94%. The hawkish FOMC dot-plot signal concentrated its downside impact on Bitcoin as a risk asset. Long-term holders (LTH) accumulated 125,000 BTC in June as a bullish argument, but the short-term trend remains bearish.

Even after the BOJ raised rates to 1.00% on June 16, USD/JPY climbed to 161.35. The U.S.-Japan rate differential (3.45 ppts) continues to support yen carry trades, and global hedge funds have accumulated record-sized yen short positions.

Foreign investors net-bought ₩1.2791 trillion, driving purchases of Samsung Electronics (+4.62%), SK Hynix (+6.51%), and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (+8.27%). The index gained 1,000 points in just 16 trading sessions after breaking 8,000 on May 26. Year-to-date from the January open (4,309), the KOSPI is up approximately +110%, posting one of the best performances among global markets.

As foreign (-₩132.3B) and institutional (-₩265.0B) money concentrated on KOSPI large-caps, both sold out of KOSDAQ small-caps. EcoPro BM (-4.28%), EcoPro (-4.32%), and Kolon TissueGene (-5.58%) tumbled sharply. The hawkish Fed stance raised discount rates for growth stocks, hitting KOSDAQ mid- and small-cap growth names harder.

Samsung Electronics' market cap reached $1.562 trillion, overtaking Tesla to reclaim the global No. 10 spot. SK Hynix posted record quarterly operating profit of ₩37.6 trillion (72% operating margin) in Q1 2026, surpassing Micron to reach global No. 13. The combined 2026 operating profit consensus for Korea's two semiconductor giants stands at ₩360 trillion (Samsung) + ₩260 trillion (SK Hynix) = ₩620 trillion.

As the Hormuz reopening resolved energy supply fears, the defense (Aerospace & Defense -4.33%) and shipbuilding (-4.67%) sectors plunged. Profit-taking concentrated in geopolitical beneficiaries such as Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.

Speculative positions concentrated on the Snap OS 2.0 AR glasses announcement and the Illumix acquisition as an M&A target play. Short-term capital flooded into call options, though the trading appears more FOMO-driven than fundamental.

Cognitive dissonance emerged as semiconductor stocks surged despite rate-hike signals. The actual driver of the June 18 chip rally (SMH +5.76%) was not a rate drop but the simultaneous occurrence of the Intel-Apple deal announcement and the U.S.-Iran MOU signing — two strong positive events that more than offset the rate shock.

Bernstein's year-end $150K forecast is squaring off against the hawkish FOMC shock. LTH accumulation is a structural bullish signal, but the short-term direction favors bears.

After the FOMC dot-plot revision, retail investors increasingly discussed reducing risk-asset exposure and rotating into short-duration bonds. Despite the equity market rebound, "bearish sentiment in a bull market" — rising cash preference — was evident.

The end of forward guidance forces bond market participants to overhaul their Fed-signal-dependent strategies. Rising bond volatility could indirectly pressure equity valuations.

Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter stated that "the evidence implies inflation may come in materially lower than the Fed projected. Oil prices have come down sharply, and the tariff-driven inflation push is already baked in and will fade over time." Both experts cite the oil trajectory and AI CapEx as key medium-term inflation variables.

Abaxx Markets' Jeff Currie argued that "the market is overshooting to the downside," forecasting a bounce within a month. His basis: the market is misreading China's temporary demand flexibility and strategic reserve releases as "sustainable supply improvement." Goldman Sachs' survey shows 66% of institutional investors expect further declines — a head-on clash between the bullish rebound case and institutional consensus.

Alger's Ankur Crawford noted that "one CEO recently mentioned that token prices would double within six months," diagnosing that AI infrastructure demand is spreading from chips into optics, memory, and power. She also cited SpaceX as "a company we've never seen in our careers," naming 3–5 year value appreciation as the basis for portfolio inclusion.

Commentators divided post-IPO investors into two camps: long-term holders who believe in Elon Musk's vision, and momentum traders seeking short-term gains. The current pullback reflects the latter exiting, with "six weeks of gains compressed into the first three IPO days," indicating price discovery is still in progress.

Andrew Yang shared an anecdote: "A public company CEO asked me, 'If I fire 30% of my employees, revenue would go up 200% — what should I do?'" With 150,000 cumulative tech layoffs in 2026, 40% explicitly attributed to AI, the labor-market impact of AI has become visible at the real-economy level.

Analysts warned that tech investors now need to monitor capital intensity and bond market access — just like investors in old-economy industrial companies. Goldman Sachs noted that big-tech free cash flow after CapEx is near its lowest level since the dot-com bubble.

After July 1, over 90% of European crypto companies will effectively be shut out. Only about 210 firms have received MiCA authorization (a survival rate of 7–18%), and just 14 hold the highest-tier license permitting actual exchange operations.