The last CPI report before the Oct. 28 decision is due today. Hike odds range from 22% to 64-70% depending on the source, so there is no market consensus. A Reddit post said Governor Williams called a 2027 hike unnecessary, but it was flagged as conflicting with market expectations.

It raised rates by 0.25%p each in July and August and has held since. Ten of 21 board members expect 3.25% in six months. Decisions after September could not be confirmed and need rechecking. With the won at around 1,345 per dollar, room to defend the currency with rates is limited.

The Dow closed at 51,670.10 (-0.35%), the S&P 500 at 7,805.45 (-0.02%) and the Nasdaq at 27,204.38 (-0.15%). Third-quarter bank earnings continued, and chip weakness weighed on the indexes. Closing levels differ slightly between sources.

Goldman beat with EPS of $17.01 (forecast $13.65) and revenue of $18.68 billion (forecast $17.03 billion), and equities trading revenue was $6.44 billion (+72%). JPMorgan's EPS of $5.57 fell short of the $5.90 forecast, though it raised its full-year net interest income outlook. Wells Fargo fell about 3%.

The Nasdaq fell 0.44% and the Dow rose 0.38%. Micron dropped about 3.9%, Sandisk 6% and Lumentum 10%, while gold slipped 0.64% to $4,167.

Forecasts are for headline +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, and core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The Fed's policy rate is 3.50-3.75%, and the odds of an October hike range from 22% to 64-70% depending on the source.

In early October the 10-year yield rose to around 5.35%, the highest since 2002. At the 10/13 close it was 5.217% (-0.023%p), and the 30-year yield was 5.563%. Figures differ by source, so the exact peak is hard to pin down.

The Revolutionary Guard has formally targeted the shuttle service, and at least 15 vessels have been attacked since the start of October. Daily transits fell from 138 vessels before the war to about 31. Freight costs are 25-30% of the cost of Gulf crude.

Zelenskyy said at least six energy facilities were attacked after the ceasefire announcement, and Lavrov rejected the ceasefire. The EU approved its largest sanctions on Russia since 2022.

It sees growth of only about 200,000 bpd in 2026 but 2.6 million bpd in 2027. OECD commercial inventories are 177 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average. On 10/13 WTI was $94.65 and Brent $105.70 (per OilPrice).

Liquidations on 10/12 exceeded $770 million, and on 10/13 bitcoin rebounded to about $83,164 (+1.67%). Binance is ending its mining pool and cloud mining services, and South Korea blocked 27 overseas exchanges.

The index fell 348.89 points as foreign investors net sold 4.5 trillion won. Worries over intensifying semiconductor competition, the end of Samsung Electronics' share buyback and a rising won-dollar exchange rate weighed on sentiment. The KOSDAQ closed at 837.03 (-1.43%).

Weakness in US chip stocks the previous day (Intel -3.20%, Micron -3.88%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -2.67%) and China's CXMT progress in DRAM technology weighed on the market. Kiwoom Securities said thin trading left little resistance to selling and that a near-term bottom is possible.

KB Securities named 5,600 to the low 6,000s on the KOSPI as a buy-on-dips range (12-month forward P/B of 1.1-1.2x). It cited doubts over the durability of AI investment, a 15-20% cut in iPhone 18 component orders (reported by Nikkei) and the end of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix buybacks as causes of the decline.

Samsung Electronics exceeded its filed amount by 10/1, with a cumulative purchase rate of 100.96% (14.16 trillion won), while SK Hynix is at 76.24% (32.05 trillion won). Some argue that foreign investors will now be the demand driver. The estimate for Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit is 114.2 trillion won, up 12% from three months ago. The body text relied on search summaries.

August chip exports were $46.65 billion (+209%), with memory at $40.94 billion (+290.2%), 47.5% of total exports. For Sept. 1-10 they were $16.48 billion (+270.1%). Exports are strong but shares have stalled, so worries about peaking earnings coexist. The body text relied on search summaries.

SK Hynix fell 10.09% (to 1,443,000 won, with trading value of 7.63 trillion won, the highest), Samsung Electronics 7.39% (232,000 won), SK Square 12.91% and Samsung Electro-Mechanics 8.34%. LG Energy Solution rose 3.02%, the only large cap to gain.

The BOK raised rates by 0.25%p each in July and August, taking the rate from 2.50% to 3.00%. Among its 21 members, 10 expect 3.25% in six months, 6 expect 3.50% and 5 expect 3.00%. Decisions after September could not be confirmed.

Commenters split between "mega-caps are immune to rates" and "AI leverage will eventually become a problem." The Russell 2000 fell 0.40% and the Nasdaq is down 1.21% over five days while the S&P 500 is down 0.15% over five days, consistent with the claim that the index masks weakness underneath.

In the BofA fund manager survey, long semiconductors is the most crowded trade. The more crowded the trade, the bigger the drop on bad news, consistent with the KOSPI's -5.46% and SK Hynix's -10.09%.

The average rate of 3.52% (9/30) contrasts with a 5.24% 10-year yield. Commenters argued that the government is increasing short-term debt (Bills about 22%), so interest costs rise faster. Fiscal and inflation pessimism dominates.

Anthropic briefs institutional investors on its Q3 results today. Debate over unit pricing and mockery of "Adjusted EBITDA" both appeared, making the outcome a near-term catalyst for AI sentiment.

Most responded cynically to the Dimon and Tudor Jones warnings. One counterargument was that "Dimon has to be cautious by profession." It signals that wariness is not widespread, consistent with a VIX of 15.27.

An analysis post arguing that 66% of S&P 500 stocks are near 52-week lows while mega-caps prop up the index.

Hock Tan likened AI investors to "casino gamblers." Long semiconductors was named the most crowded trade, and tech weighting is the highest in six years.

A post arguing that interest costs rise with each refinancing, given the 5.24% 10-year yield versus an average rate of 3.52% (9/30).

Anthropic briefs institutional investors on its Q3 results on Wednesday, and an IPO is reportedly targeted as early as mid-November.

The CEO said crypto card users do not care whether merchants accept crypto.

The 10/13 closing broadcast carried "stocks fall, BofA sanctions, bank earnings mixed" in its title. An intraday broadcast titled "Tudor Jones sees a midterm-related rally," and a separate video covered Tudor Jones's 2027 outlook. "Market concentration concerns" took market concentration worries as its subject. [Direct quotes not collected]

"JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo: 4 takeaways from bank earnings" summarized the big four banks' results. A J&J CFO interview put the guidance raise in its title. A video asking whether mortgage rates could reach 8% addresses rate pressure. On the stock side, it pointed to the possibility that Microsoft's Maia 300 chip could reduce reliance on Nvidia. [Direct quotes not collected]

"The AI Trade Is BREAKING The Bond Market" put the AI trade's impact on the bond market in its title. It points in the same direction as today's link between AI concentration and rate pressure. [Direct quotes not collected]

The title presents Ray Dalio's warning that "the US debt crisis will erupt within three years." Fiscal and rate concerns stand out as long-term risks. [Direct quotes not collected]