It was reported to have raised rates 25bp on September 16 to 3.75-4.00% (the rate level differs by source, so this is not confirmed). The next meeting is 10/27-28. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker expects a hike at the end of this month, and some economists see a hold in October followed by further hikes. With PPI far above expectations, the roughly 75-80% odds of a hold are subject to reassessment.

The October decision could not be confirmed. An ECB official judged that energy inflation is not spreading to other items.

The next rate meeting is 10/23. The current policy rate could not be confirmed because sources disagree. A BOK official said oil prices and the Middle East situation make the direction hard to call.

The Dow closed at 52,177.69 (+1.1%), the S&P 500 at 7,744.06 (+0.3%) and the Nasdaq at 26,713.03 (+0.1%). Stocks opened lower but rose on falling Treasury yields and a rotation into industrials, after the Nasdaq plunged about 2% the previous day.

This is the largest annual increase since 2022, with a monthly gain of 1.3% (expected 0.5-0.6%). Higher gasoline prices from the Iran war were the main driver.

The KOSPI fell more than 8% intraday, halting trading, and closed at 5,554.22. The Nikkei 225 closed at 64,425.95, the Hang Seng fell 1.0% and the Shanghai Composite 1.6%. SoftBank dropped more than 9%.

The Dow rose 556.21 points (+1.08%). CoreWeave, which plunged more than 15% on 10/14, rebounded 6% on 10/15 after comments from Jensen Huang, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovered from its lows but still closed lower.

Five-year CDS spreads exceeded 1,000bp, and Oracle's debt of roughly $167 billion and CoreWeave's of roughly $50 billion were cited. Gartner said about 80% of neocloud providers could stop operating independently within a few years.

WTI rose on a sharp drop in U.S. commercial inventories, while Brent was flat. Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz are offset by U.S. efforts to ease tanker sanctions.

The Ibex 35 closed down 0.28% below 19,200, and Brent fell about 1.6% to the $104 range. France's September inflation was 3.1% and eurozone August industrial output was -0.5%.

Goldman posted EPS of $17.01 (consensus $13.65), revenue of $18.68 billion and equities revenue up 72%. Wells Fargo fell about 3% as its revenue of $21.87 billion disappointed.

J&J raised its full-year guidance but only to expected levels, and weak medtech growth sent the shares down about 7%. Domino's also fell on slowing growth despite EPS above expectations.

The Fed was reported to have raised rates 25bp in September to 3.75-4.00% (the rate level differs by source). As of 10/5, futures priced the odds of a hold at about 80%. September payrolls rose 29K, and August core PCE was 3.0%.

The KOSPI closed down 7.57% at 5,554.22. A hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI, doubts over AI profitability and reports of China's CXMT developing server DRAM all converged. Brokerages see semiconductors being repriced from growth stocks to cyclical earnings stocks.

Samsung Electronics fell 9.48% (to 210,000 won) and SK Hynix 11.06% (to 1,262,000 won). The index closed at a six-month low, down 18.77% from end-September and on a seven-session losing streak.

Sell-side sidecars were triggered in both markets within 10 minutes of the open, followed by circuit breakers. It was the first simultaneous trigger since late July, and sell-side sidecars across the two markets have exceeded 40 this year.

Foreign investors have been net sellers on the KOSPI for eight straight sessions. Individuals net bought 1.2886 trillion won and institutions 1.6930 trillion won (tallies differ by outlet). On the KOSDAQ, foreigners net bought 215.8 billion won.

A stage-one circuit breaker halted trading for 20 minutes at around 12:38. It was the KOSPI's 10th circuit breaker this year.

Adjusted for working days (5.5 versus 3.5), the daily average is up 28.5%. Semiconductor exports were $12.2 billion (+170.9%), or 46.7% of the total, and the trade balance posted a $3.8 billion surplus.

The selling was concentrated in SK Hynix (about 12 trillion won) and Samsung Electronics (about 5.2 trillion won). The report said it slowed in October.

The community is even reading in an October hike. The actual market, though, saw the 10-year yield fall 10.1bp, a disconnect. Prices may have reflected a rate-cut reading (flight to safety).

Points in the same direction as CoreWeave's 15% 2032 bond yield and CDS above 1,000bp. The problem has shifted from technology to debt financing.

Ties in with a broadcast remark that S&P index investors have more than 45% tech exposure. If AI stocks fall, losses could cascade through ETFs.

A comparison of Samsung's $1 trillion market cap with Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO was posted. Anthropic's Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion saw growth slow from +147% in Q2 to around +50%, feeding talk of lowering IPO expectations.

Long liquidations of $869M over 24 hours and about $1 billion overall. BTC's +0.92% daily rebound reads as a result of leverage being flushed out.

A post noting that September PPI far exceeded expectations.

A post questioning the valuation gap between the two companies.

A post saying AI-related stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500, above the dot-com TMT share of 41%.

Per Fitch, 13 of 15 received requests, averaging 9.8% (versus a 5% cap), and bids came in at a 12.5% discount to NAV. A clue to credit concerns.

The community expects an October hike and a "rough winter" on 6.3% PPI. But the 10-year yield on 10/15 was 5.089% (-10.1bp) and TLT rose 1.37%, so bonds rallied. The jump in $TLT mentions from 33 to 80 signals the community belatedly noticing money moving toward lower yields.

Sentiment says "$1 trillion wiped out," yet the S&P 500 rose 0.33% and the Dow 1.08%. The decline is confined to AI (Nasdaq -2.39% over five days, SMH -1.04%). Sentiment is skewed more than index moves.

The most-mentioned $MU, $CRWV, $NBIS and $NVDA are at the center of AI credit worries. This matches CoreWeave's 15%-plus drop on 10/14 and the 9-11% fall in KOSPI chip stocks.

The community reads Q3 net income of +68.7% as bullish, but broadcasts note the stock fell about 2% despite the same strong results. Good news is not overcoming AI debt worries.

Liquidation fear (bearish) clashes with the BTC +0.92% and ETH +1.69% rebound. The rebound may be a technical effect after liquidations.

The Dow rose 556 points, and falling Treasury yields revived lagging sectors such as consumer and housing. The 1.3% monthly PPI gain, far above the 0.5% expected, is the largest in four years.

Intraday, the Dow was up 541 points and the Nasdaq down 24 points. Retail sales are assessed as heavily driven by gasoline, with volume consumption modest.

He sees the rotation continuing from energy (up about 40% this year) into tech and health care (new highs). Interactive Brokers' Sosnick warns that S&P 500 investors have more than 45% tech exposure, so a drop in AI stocks would cascade through ETFs.

Views clashed over CoreWeave's 2032 bond yield above 15%, rising funding inquiries from lenders, the CEO's defense of the backlog and equity raise, and Bank of America's defense of hyperscalers' long-term contracts. Gartner believes about 80% of neocloud providers could stop operating independently within a few years.

Altimeter's Gerstner cut exposure to a three-year low but is more optimistic on 2027-28 and plans to buy in the coming weeks if the price is right. Josh Brown sees an oversupply of corporate bonds issued for AI capex as a major cause of rising yields. Stephanie Link, citing the four-week average of weekly jobless claims at 198K (the lowest since 1969), combines tech dip-buying with diversification.

The calm that began with the VIX at 14 has collapsed. CoreWeave fell more than 15% in a day, and the 10-year yield fell from an intraday 5.35-5.40% to 5.08-5.10%. SK Hynix fell 11%, SoftBank more than 9%, the Nikkei about 5% and the KOSPI more than 7%. Ed Yardeni cut his S&P 500 year-end target from 8,400 to 7,900 and sees the forward P/E compressing from 19.8 to 18.6. The New York City comptroller asked Anthropic's CEO to delay the IPO.

The issue is that metrics reported from the S-1 suggest slowing quarterly growth and enormous compute costs. Reports say IPO marketing could begin the week of November 9, before Thanksgiving. In a KPMG survey (400 U.S. CEOs), 84% named AI their top investment priority, but only 14% expect profits within 6-12 months. Names and figures in the captions (such as 900% net revenue retention) are uncertain.

National debt is about $40 trillion, and net interest costs exceeded $1 trillion in 2026 (about $3 billion a day), projected to reach $2.1 trillion in 2036. A structurally pessimistic view in which inflation raises the interest burden faster than the debt itself.