The Fed hiked 25bp on September 16, and the September minutes showed most officials expecting another hike this year. With September CPI at 3.7%, PPI at 6.3% and Brent near $110, markets are pricing a hold in October followed by a December hike (about 89%). High rates hurt borrowing-dependent AI infrastructure operators the most.

Riots and budget uncertainty in France have pushed the French 10-year yield up to 4.90%, setting tightening against fiscal instability. The euro's lack of movement signals that markets view this as a France-specific risk.

After back-to-back hikes in July and August, a hold is likely at the October 22 meeting (93% of bond market participants). Risk aversion from the equity selloff has actually improved domestic bond sentiment. With the won at a two-year high, currency pressure has eased, and many expect further hikes in November and in the first quarter of next year to a terminal rate of 3.5%.

Japan's 10-year yield is around 2.95%, and a December hike is being discussed. The PBOC kept its LPR unchanged on 10/20 for the 17th straight month.

The Dow rose 529.85 points (+1.02%) to 52,495.88, the S&P 500 gained 0.28% to 7,712.57 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.02% to 26,424.82. The Russell 2000 led with a 1.65% gain, roughly three-quarters of S&P 500 constituents advanced and the VIX fell 5.4% to 17.44. The prior week, the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% on AI borrowing and investment concerns, its worst week since late June.

December Brent settled 0.7% lower at $108.79 after an intraday high of $111.99. Unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Pakistan had put forward a new proposal to revive negotiations to end the Iran war drove the decline. However, according to Kpler, 18 vessels were attacked in Hormuz over the past two weeks and transits fell about 70% to 254 per week.

The 10-year rose as high as 5.14% intraday before easing to around 5.12% on lower oil and weak housing data. That is below the 5.36% reached earlier this month, a 24-year high. Markets are pricing a hold at the 10/27-28 FOMC and about an 89% probability of a December hike.

CoreWeave slid as low as $57.24 intraday, its lowest since May 2025, before rebounding about 10% on reports of GPU price increases. Its 9.75% notes due 2031 trade at about 80.6 cents on the dollar, yielding around 15.5%, well above the roughly 11.3% of mid-August. Debt and lease liabilities total about $52 billion.

Third-quarter revenue of $12.87 billion (+12% YoY) was in line with expectations, and EPS of $0.87 beat the $0.82 forecast. Operating margin rose to 34.6% from 28.2% a year earlier. However, the company cut its 2026 ad revenue outlook from about $3 billion to $2.7 billion, and the stock was already down about 26% year-to-date ahead of the report.

Third-quarter revenue was about $14.58 billion (vs. $12.7 billion expected) and EPS was $0.35 (vs. about $0.15 expected), with capex lower than forecast. The Starlink segment beat expectations, but launch counts fell short and the cash balance was well below expectations. Shares were at $147.50 before the release, down about 6% on the week.

Revenue was $50 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.70 topped the LSEG estimate of $3.63. The company also authorized a $20 billion buyback, more than 25% of its market cap. However, it only narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBIT outlook to $14.5-15.5 billion, and shares fell about 7% intraday.

RTX posted adjusted EPS of $2.26, well above the $1.78 forecast, and raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $7.65-7.75 and its revenue outlook to $97-97.5 billion. Its backlog is a record $340 billion. Northrop Grumman also raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $29.35-29.75, with a record backlog of $109.6 billion.

Bitcoin slid to $81,405 in the morning before partially recovering to the $82,400 range in the afternoon. It was down about 1.6% over 24 hours and about 2.9% on the week. ETF outflows, resistance at $82,000 and risk aversion from continued Middle East attacks were cited as reasons for the weakness.

The KOSPI fell 215.27 points (-3.73%) to close at 5,552.74 after sliding as low as 5,493.24 (-4.76%) intraday. Foreign investors (-533.3 billion won) and institutions (-1.0048 trillion won) overwhelmed retail buying (+898.2 billion won), and the KOSDAQ also fell 3.33% (781.97). Brokerages cited unresolved concerns over AI investment funding, instability in France, WTI in the $103 range and a 5.14% U.S. 10-year yield, and said the 62.9% weight of two chip stocks in MSCI Korea amplified the decline.

The won/dollar rate closed at 1,328.1 won, the lowest since October 2024, with an intraday low of 1,325.4 won. Dollar selling by chip exporters outweighed dollar demand from foreign equity sales. The dollar index stands at 101.78.

Since September 28, Samsung Electronics has fallen 19.26% and SK hynix 27.77%, steeper than Micron (-14.14%). Share buybacks that had absorbed foreign selling have slowed, and won strength is also a burden. KB Securities forecasts Samsung Electronics' operating profit next year at 555 trillion won, and Hana Securities sees SK hynix at 405 trillion won.

Elice, this year's largest KOSDAQ IPO (201 billion won), closed at 61,500 won, 32% below its offer price of 90,500 won. The result was the opposite of its strong book-building (388-to-1 institutional demand, 408-to-1 retail subscription), and according to Bloomberg it was the worst first-day performance in Korean IPO history. Peer Firmus also withdrew its listing this month.

From October 1-19, LG Energy Solution rose 21.0% and Samsung SDI 15.0%. Meritz Securities raised its LG Energy Solution target to 510,000 won citing ESS growth and cylindrical batteries for Tesla, and Shinhan Investment raised its Samsung SDI target to 740,000 won. On the 20th, however, profit-taking hit LG Energy Solution (-4.17%) and EcoPro BM (-9.15%).

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering signed a 1.9196 trillion won contract with HMM for eight 13,000-TEU LNG dual-fuel container ships. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will build two and HD Hyundai Samho six, with deliveries through 2029. Cumulative orders for January-September reached $1.842 billion, up 182.5% from a year earlier.

In a Korea Financial Investment Association survey (100 people at 53 institutions), 93% expected a hold on the 22nd and 7% a hike. The view is that the BOK will assess the impact of back-to-back hikes in July and August. Risk aversion from the equity correction increased responses expecting lower yields, improving bond sentiment.

A reaction to Elice's -32% debut and the broad weakness in data center stocks. CoreWeave's bond yield was 15.5% the same day, and articles on local lawsuits and political backlash against data centers ranked high on r/technology. The community doubts the business model of infrastructure operators more than AI demand itself. Conversely, the $45 billion Nscale-Anthropic talks were cited as evidence that demand remains alive.

Goldman upgraded CRWV to buy, citing an unlevered IRR of about 15% even assuming zero GPU residual value and a blended cost of debt of about 9%. The community mainstream scoffed. In fact, CRWV rebounded about 10% from an intraday 17-month low, but its bonds did not recover, so the community's view is closer to the bond market's.

OKLO, once the flagship of the AI power theme, has about $3 billion in cash out of a market cap of about $5 billion. Users also flagged the risk of an additional $1 billion ATM dilution. Even news the same day that the U.S. will restart three reactors (2.25GW) for AI data centers failed to revive the theme stock's valuation. The lesson is that power demand and individual stock value are separate matters.

Users also noted that the talks report was walked back within hours. Prices are consistent with this cynicism. Brent fell only 0.49% ($109.01), and Hormuz transit remains down about 70%. News on r/worldnews of a third U.S. carrier deployment and British fighter jets stationed in Saudi Arabia points the same way.

SpaceX revenue of $14.58 billion (+161% YoY) handily beat the $12.7 billion consensus, but shares were roughly flat after hours. Speculative fervor ran high, with a $2 million full-margin buy screenshot going viral just before earnings, but the price reaction sided with valuation skeptics.

The daily trading thread ahead of SpaceX and Netflix earnings.

A post satirizing the AI bubble.

A neocloud loss screenshot showing BRUN down 80% since June and 50% in two weeks.

The upgrade was based on new long-term contract pricing of about $13 million/MW (previously about $10 million) and an unlevered IRR of about 15%.

A post that believes in satellite communications firm ASTS's business but not in management's timelines.

Covered Elice's first-day plunge and the weakness in data center stocks.

An article on the oil pullback driven by hopes for Iran talks.

A post linking a bank's internal control failure to the case for bitcoin.

A question from an investor nearing retirement who wants to cut contributions and build cash-equivalent holdings.

Chris Sununu of Airlines for America said jet fuel is up 250%, making U.S. Thanksgiving domestic fares 31% more expensive than last year, and that U.S. airlines are absorbing most of the cost while bearing about $12 billion in losses this year. Ryanair's CEO warned European airfares would rise 10-20% next year. Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz argued SpaceX should be seen as a de facto hyperscaler that builds compute and sells it to customers such as Anthropic, and Evercore ISI said 2027 catalysts (Starship reuse, V3 satellites, orbital compute) will drive the stock more than Q3 numbers. CNBC also reported that Apple received an unusual double downgrade on weak iPhone 18 Pro shipments and rising memory costs.

The program grouped Elice's 32% first-day plunge, despite raising about $150 million at the top of its range, with Firmus's IPO withdrawal, SB Energy's valuation cut and the debate over Nscale's listing valuation as part of the same trend. It reported that the SOX fell 2.5% early in the session to its lowest since late July before turning higher in the final hour. Gartner projected $3.6 trillion in revenue against $6 trillion in AI spending for 2027-2030, warning of write-downs, while J.P. Morgan Asset Management expects AI enablers to account for about 75% of earnings growth next year. Anthropic is negotiating a compute deal of up to $45 billion with Nscale.

Market Hang singled out the Korean market, where memory makes up more than half the index, as the "canary in the coal mine" for AI sentiment. Citing the FT, it said hyperscaler CDS trading has quadrupled since July and CoreWeave CDS remains stuck near 1,100bp. The diagnosis is that the low VIX reflects high dispersion and low correlation, so it could shift abruptly if correlation rises. The 8:30 covered HSBC maintaining its sell rating on CoreWeave (price target $39), noting that CoreWeave's revenue per MW will reach only about $12 million in 2027 versus $17-18 million in annual revenue per MW for hyperscalers. As for why defense stocks are down about 3% this year even though Northrop and RTX beat and raised guidance, the program cited waiting for confirmation of budget execution and cost pressures such as rare earth magnets.

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake urged preparation, warning that AI's rapidly advancing math capabilities could weaken wallet signatures within months. Addresses with already-exposed public keys are most vulnerable, covering about one-third of bitcoin. No case of a break has occurred yet, and mining and hashing are less affected. Bitcoin developers are debating draft proposals to block transfers from legacy addresses after three years and to retire legacy signatures after five years.

Lee Ji-hwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory, summed up the selloff as a chain of "rising oil, inflation fears, rate hikes, rising bond yields and neocloud funding pressure." Hedge fund allocations to AI stocks fell from 31.7% in June to 26.1%, but with short positions not exceeding 30%, he did not see a shift to a downtrend, saying the trend would only break if chips fell below their July lows. Yoo Young-hwa, a manager at KB Securities, attributed SK hynix's weakness to a lack of liquidity rather than the stock itself, saying the key is whether SoftBank CDS rising above 430bp spreads credit fears to OpenAI's funding sources. In the closing market wrap, center head Kim Jang-yeol said Big Tech needs to show backlog growth rather than capex increases.

After the KOSPI closed at 5,552 and the KOSDAQ at 781, SK hynix fell more than 5% and LG Energy Solution another 4.4% in the after-market. Commentator Kwon Hye-young said that without a U.S.-Iran deal this week, a further decline would come next week and that would be the time to add exposure, pointing to Doosan Enerbility (2027 nuclear orders). Commentator Park Tae-jun cited Samsung Electro-Mechanics' 360 billion won long-term BGA substrate supply contract as evidence that shortages are spreading from high-end to commodity substrates.

Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities estimated that foreign investors have sold about 210 trillion won since the start of the year, leaving little left to sell, and saw a W-shaped double-bottom phase like 2018, 2022 and March 2026. The worst-case low is around 5,100, equivalent to a forward P/B of 1x. In contrast, Professor Kim Young-ik said the AI bubble is in the process of bursting, with non-bank finance such as private credit at the epicenter. He said the KOSPI market cap-to-M2 ratio, currently about 94%, could fall further to its long-term average of 58%, forecast a U.S. recession in the first half of next year based on the peak in U.S. leading indicators, and recommended a 20% equity allocation. CEO Lee Kwon-hee attributed Korea's decline despite the U.S. chip rebound to internal issues such as the controversy over a Solidigm spin-off listing.

A guest who has long emphasized circular financing and CDS risk said this is not a meltdown but a phase in which doubt grows in a self-fulfilling way. The reasoning is that neoclouds account for about 6% of AI data center debt and hyperscalers more than 90%, so even if CoreWeave collapses, the whole ecosystem will not. The guest put a 1x forward P/B for the KOSPI at about 5,120, seeing more upside than downside. Another video argued that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are cheap at 3-4x forward P/E but that the discount is justified by their heavy dependence on the U.S.