• New entry conditions met: None (trend entry condition unrecovered despite sharp price rebound — see divergence above)
• Entry condition broken: AMZN (6/11), LLY (6/12)
• Trail danger zone (<5% trail room): EWY (6/9 4.52% → 6/10 1.95% crisis low before recovery), ROKT (6/10 4.15%), GLD (negative throughout week -7% to -11.5%)
• (Note) AVGO maintained entry condition throughout but trail room compressed to 5.17% on 6/10 before recovering to 7.19%

The regime shifted from risk_off (W23) to risk_on in a single week. Yet trend signals could not keep pace with prices — SMH and EWY surged +8.82% and +12.71% respectively, while their entry conditions remained 'Not Met' and zero new entries were added. Core holdings (SPY·QQQ·XLK) absorbed the shock with trail room above 23% and held firm, mega-cap semiconductors (AVGO·MU) maintained their entry conditions, and defensive names (XLV·LLY) plus the one Big Tech that failed to rebound (AMZN) broke their entry conditions during the risk-on transition. Gold's avoidance stance continued from W23. In short, "V-shaped price recovery, signals still pending confirmation" was the defining theme of the week, and next week's FOMC will be the arbiter of whether this divergence resolves (trend confirmed) or reverses (rebound negated).

• 2026-06-14 (Sun): Potential U.S.-Iran Geneva MOU signing — a signed deal would push oil lower and extend risk-on; a breakdown would send WTI back above $90.
• 2026-06-15~16 (Mon~Tue): BOJ rate decision — 0.75% to 1.0% hike at 97% probability. 25bps already priced in; language hinting at further hikes is the key variable.
• 2026-06-16~17 (Tue~Wed): FOMC meeting (Chair Warsh's first meeting and first SEP) — hold at 97% is near-certain, but the dot plot's implied number of cuts in 2026 is the key variable.
• 2026-06-19 (Fri): MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review — first read on whether Korea is added to the Developed Market Watch List.
• 2026-06-24 (Wed): MSCI Annual Market Classification Review — if Korea is placed on the Developed Market Watch List, estimated KRW 50–70 trillion of foreign inflows expected (largest event of the quarter, late next week).
• 2026-06-24 (Wed): Micron (MU) Q3 earnings — whether HBM demand is reconfirmed will determine whether the semiconductor V-shaped rebound is sustainable.

1. Warsh's first dot plot (SEP) is the arbiter of the V-shaped rebound: If the 6/17 SEP confirms '0 cuts in 2026,' the rally's driving force (falling rate expectations, 10Y at 4.49%) breaks, triggering a re-rating of high-P/S growth equities (Nasdaq -3~5%). A hold + neutral message would support a push beyond oversold relief toward a retest of the all-time high (7,609).
2. Direction of the semiconductor price-signal divergence: SMH's +8.82% surge has not yet recovered entry conditions (MACD/MA trend alignment). If signals ratify prices post-FOMC/BOJ (entry conditions met), the trend is confirmed; a hawkish shock would cause this to be the first area to reverse. Micron's 6/24 earnings are the fundamental verification axis.
3. Asymmetry of Iran MOU signing vs. breakdown: A signing would push oil lower → energy CPI base-effect reversal → risk-on extended. A breakdown would push WTI back to $90–100 → CPI re-acceleration → defense stocks surge, semiconductors sell off. RBC and others caution against premature optimism, citing the absence of Supreme Leader confirmation.

1. Hawkish FOMC dot plot (30% probability): If Warsh's first SEP signals 0 cuts + more concrete conditions for rate hikes, the 10Y Treasury could rise 20~30bps and the Nasdaq could fall -3~5%. AVGO (trail 7.19%) and SMH remain in entry-condition-unrecovered territory, making them direct targets for a retest.
2. Iran negotiations breakdown (20~25% probability): If the Geneva MOU collapses or military conflict resumes, WTI could re-breach $90–100, re-accelerating CPI. Energy and defense would surge while semiconductors — this week's V-shaped rally leaders — would reverse to lead the decline.
3. BOJ signaling further hikes + yen carry unwind (30% probability): 25bps is already priced in, but language suggesting additional hikes could break USD/JPY below 160, triggering unwinds across $500 billion in yen carry positions. A repeat of the August 2024 pattern would deliver a single-day hit of -3~4% to major AI semiconductor names.
4. Technical immaturity of the rebound (structural): A price-led rebound without entry-condition confirmation can reverse quickly on any fundamental or event shock, without signal validation. Zero new entries and EWY's trail room scare (1.95% crisis low) are evidence of this structural fragility.