9/19, 02:37 PM

Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman, and apparently the stock has actually lagged since Abel became CEO. What does this chairman handover actually mean? Is it still okay to hold Berkshire stock right now?

2026-09-19


A 60-year handover, but one that actually began 8 months ago

The September 18 announcement wasn't a new event — it was the next step in a succession already underway. Buffett handed the CEO role to Greg Abel back on January 1 of this year, and now he's also handing the chairmanship to his son Howard Buffett while stepping back to chairman emeritus (Washington Post, CNN, CNBC, 2026-09-18). The phrase "Father Time always wins" from the letter sums up the nature of this decision — not a strategic choice, but an inevitable transition dictated by his age of 96.

"Greg runs the company; Howard will guard its culture and values — both worth more than anything on our balance sheet." — Warren Buffett, shareholder letter (2026-09-18)

That sentence explains the structure on its own. Abel runs operations; Howard guards culture and values — in other words, this decision isn't a transfer of operating control, it's a separation of veto power and symbolism. Howard has been a board member since 1993 but does not run the company. The actual capital-allocation and investment decisions have been in Abel's hands since January.

Eight months under Abel, in numbers

What's worrying the market isn't the chairman handover — it's the performance that preceded it. Berkshire shares have significantly lagged the S&P 500 in 2026 (24/7 Wall St., 2026-05-28), and $1,000 invested on the day Abel became CEO would today be well below the market average return (Motley Fool, 2026-09-02). The reason is simple — a $397 billion cash pile has been earning only Treasury-level interest while the market has rallied hard.

But the trend started to shift in Q2

Here's an inflection point that's easy to miss. Abel reversed a streak of 14 consecutive quarters of net selling for the first time in Q2. He simultaneously deployed $10 billion into a new Alphabet stake, acquired homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $6.8 billion, spent roughly $20 billion buying stocks, and bought back about $4.5 billion of Berkshire's own shares (Yahoo Finance/Motley Fool, 2026-08). As a result, cash holdings fell to $364.7 billion at the end of June, the first quarter-over-quarter decline in more than three years (Fool.com, 2026-08-11).

In other words, the "Abel is doing nothing" framing is already outdated. The problem is that the market doesn't yet fully trust this shift. UBS called this cash deployment "meaningful" and maintained a buy rating, but many analysts remain in a "show me" posture (CNBC, 2026-05-01).

Why the market is still skeptical

The fundamental difference between Buffett and Abel is less about performance than about communication and symbolism. Buffett's investment decisions were market signals in themselves — the so-called "Buffett premium," where other investors followed his lead. Abel, deploying comparable amounts of capital, hasn't yet produced the same follow-on effect. Even when the $10 billion Alphabet investment was announced in June, Berkshire's own stock barely reacted. Today's report's observation that "Berkshire has lagged the S&P 500 since Abel took over (+1% vs. +11% year-to-date)" reflects exactly this trust gap.

So what should investors do

The chairman handover itself isn't new information for the stock price, since Howard doesn't run the company. What actually matters going forward is twofold. First, whether Q3 earnings (expected early November) show the pace of cash deployment holding or accelerating from the Q2 trend (roughly $20 billion in stock purchases). Second, whether a major acquisition larger than Taylor Morrison gets announced. If either happens, it would be a decisive signal that trust is being restored — that Abel, too, can make big bets like Buffett did. Conversely, if the cash pile grows again in Q4, concerns about "a mountain of idle cash" could reignite and cement the underperformance versus the S&P 500. Rather than rushing into a new position now, it's more reasonable to wait for confirmation in the Q3 earnings that the cash-deployment trend is continuing before deciding.



Related Questions