On September 16 the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023. Sixteen of 18 officials projected at least one more hike this year, and four saw room for two more. But the weak jobs data and slowing PCE have cut the odds of an October hike to about 20%, with a hold at 77% (CME FedWatch). The weak labor market and the hiking stance are now in conflict.

It raised rates by 25bp in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. This was the second hike since the US-Iran war. It kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.0% and raised its 2027 and 2028 forecasts to 2.5% and 2.1%.

On September CPI of 2.9%, it said the underlying uptrend actually widened somewhat once the base effect from mobile phone fee discounts is taken into account. It expects around 3% in October too. IBK Investment & Securities sees the won at around 1,400 per dollar at year-end, citing higher US yields and a wider Korea-US rate gap.

The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September and signaled further hikes this year. A summary of opinions was less hawkish than expected, leaving the yen weak near 158 per dollar. On September 29 the PBOC cut its one-year PSL rate from 1.75% to 1.5%, while the LPR (1-year 3.00%, 5-year-plus 3.50%) has been unchanged for 16 months. The stance favors targeted support over broad stimulus.

Payrolls missed the consensus of 84,000-90,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. The prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000.

It set a new high of $237.88 intraday and its market cap surpassed $5.7 trillion. SMH closed +2.07% and the Nasdaq +1.19%. The same day, Seagate plunged more than 11% on reports that Toshiba will double its HDD production capacity.

AMD, Nvidia and Broadcom beat expectations in their latest quarterly results. BofA named Nvidia (expanded buybacks), Intel, Micron (buyback launch) and Marvell (analyst day on October 6) as near-term catalysts.

It raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%. Sixteen of 18 officials project another hike this year. The next meeting is October 28.

Brent was $99.68 (-2.57%) and WTI $91.24 (-1.76%). A release over about four months, coordinated by the IEA, is under consideration. Oil remains around $100 because of the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

The two countries agreed to cut tariffs on $30 billion of goods each, $60 billion in total (30-for-30). The Busan agreement deadline was pushed back two months, from November 10 to January 10, 2027.

By Freddie Mac's measure, the rate rose from 7.03% to 7.28%, versus 6.34% a year earlier. MBA applications fell 6% in the week ended September 25.

Of 116 companies that issued guidance, 72 (62%) were positive, above the five-year average of 40%. All 11 sectors are expected to grow year over year, led by energy, IT, communication services and materials.

It was the second-largest monthly figure since October 2025. Another $103 million came in on October 1, though IBIT and FBTC saw outflows. Bitcoin topped $85,000 before the jobs report and closed at $84,345.

Exports were $120.94 billion (+83.5%) and semiconductors $60.3 billion (+262.8%). The trade surplus was $49.85 billion, and cumulative January-September exports of $814.5 billion already exceed last year's full-year total ($709.3 billion).

Samsung Electronics' program is KRW 15 trillion (Sept 24-Nov 21) and SK Hynix's is KRW 40 trillion (Sept 20-Nov 19). Foreigners and individuals net sold more than KRW 30 trillion of KOSPI shares this month, but buying by other corporations supported the index. One report says about KRW 37 trillion of the KRW 55 trillion total remains.

September CPI was 2.9%, down from 3.1% the previous month. Adjusting for the base effect of mobile phone fee discounts, the underlying uptrend actually widened somewhat. Middle East war uncertainty is pushing up core inflation.

It closed down 7.8 won (-0.57%). It rose as high as 1,366.7 in the morning before falling on exporter and heavy-industry dollar selling. IBK Investment & Securities forecasts around 1,400 at year-end. Dealers see a 1,340-1,380 range.

It closed at KRW 1.354 million. Second-quarter revenue was KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30%) and operating profit KRW 586.4 billion (+23%).

The deal, worth about KRW 1.3 trillion, includes 16 Chunmoo launchers, guided missiles and integrated logistics support. It beat out NATO-member competitors. The stock rose 3.68%, among the strongest of the market-cap leaders.

The five companies sold about 646,000 vehicles combined. Hyundai Motor sold 307,998, hit by fewer business days over the Chuseok holiday and production disruptions. Kia sold 281,984, with overseas +7.5% and domestic -6.7%, and its Q3 cumulative total of 846,764 is a record.

July went from +21,000 to -10,000 and August was cut to 133,000, putting the three-month average at about 50,000. The point is that the market looked only at the headline miss and priced in too little of the worsening trend. Combined with the 10-year yield rising to 5.277% the same day, "bad data" did not work as a dovish catalyst.

The S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.19% and VIX at 15.32 (-6.53%) contrast with this anxiety. Insensitivity to data shocks while volatility is low is flagged as a risk.

The 10-year at 5.277%, the 30-year at 5.630% and mortgages at 7.28% are all moving the same way. A post noting that the France-Germany 10-year spread has widened to a 15-year high adds to bond anxiety. The "24-year high" claim is the original poster's wording.

China sales -26%, FY2027 revenue guidance of a high-single-digit decline, and headcount cuts all landed together. Screenshots of 0DTE put gains clash with contrarian "13-year low" buy calls. It reads as caution on consumer companies with China exposure.

The bearish narrative has lasted a long time, yet the Nasdaq is near a record at 27,190.86. r/technology also carries posts on big investors betting on declines and on AI safety issues, so sentiment is split in two.

September jobs +29K, unemployment 4.2%, August revised down to +133K, July turned to -10K. Fed funds futures price a 72% probability of an October hold.

The bearish thesis is that surging long-term yields compress multiples. The post adds a claim that hedge fund position unwinds are amplifying volatility.

Screenshots of 0DTE put gains followed right after earnings, and the bearish "Nike a $20 stock soon ?" post coexists with a contrarian "generational buy" post.

With the three-month average at about 50,000 and last month's Fed hike, the debate is whether "another hike in October is possible."

BTC pushed above $85,000 and was then pushed back to around $84,000. The thesis is that "whether it can reclaim and hold 85K is the test of the narrative shift."

The investing subreddits read the jobs shock as stagflation, but risk assets rose: S&P 500 +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.19%, Russell 2000 +0.94%. Prices moved opposite to what the community feared, and that gap itself became the basis for comments calling it a "greed indicator."

The bearish thesis that "long-term yields are the problem" fits the 10-year at 5.277% (+4bp), the 30-year at 5.630% and TLT at -0.30%. Weakness in long-term bonds is confirmed in prices.

The most-mentioned stock (377 mentions) is the one that plunged. With XLY at +1.13% within consumer discretionary, Nike's weakness looks like a company-specific earnings shock rather than a sector-wide one.

Micron and Nvidia gain screenshots and the surge in memory/storage (WDC, SNDK, STX) mentions point the same way as SMH +2.07%. But because Seagate fell 11%, the storage theme should not be read as uniformly bullish. Sentiment for those stocks is inferred.

BTC mentions rose about threefold, but the price fell 0.60%. Attention did not translate into price gains.

He sees Tesla's Q3 deliveries beating expectations and a recovery in European sales as reassuring. He says Model 3/Y account for 98% of deliveries, so the Cybertruck does not move demand much. The stock hinges on robotaxis, autonomous driving and Optimus, and he calls 2027 a "golden year." In the later segment, he expects tech strength to continue on AI demand and the earnings season.

It reports the 10-year yield at 5.264%, down 5-6bp from the prior day. With PCE slowing and September jobs weak, the odds of a hike this month are about 20% and of a hold 77% (36% a week ago). Most panelists think the Fed will not move before the election and will hold through December. Amy counters that a sustained fall in rates requires slower growth, which weighs on S&P multiples over the long term. Malcolm expects the rally led by a few AI megacaps to continue through October, and sees the Anthropic IPO (said to be planned for mid-November) supporting risk appetite. Jim agrees with Citadel's Q4 "reload" memo (falling leverage, cooling retail, systematic selling, valuation compression).

As data notes, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is at 3.7% (5% a week ago) and weekly initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for two straight months. The transcript cuts off midway, so the second half could not be analyzed.

Higher mortgage rates have raised the monthly payment on a median-priced home by $300 (15%) from the February low. Existing-home supply is short because fixed-rate borrowers are locked in, and prices reaccelerated to 1.9% year over year. New-home inventory is the highest since 2008-2009, and the median price is below that of existing homes for the first time in decades.

Q3 deliveries of 486,532 beat analyst expectations, and Tesla holds its largest order backlog since 2023 as of the end of Q2. The host thinks higher gasoline prices favor EV demand. A colleague notes the figure equals one month of BYD sales, points to weakness across the sector, and says GM's EV sales have halved.

Yahoo Finance covered September jobs of +29,000 and the downward revisions for July-August, and in a separate video argued that this jobs weakness is good for Bitcoin. Neither video had a transcript, so only title-level information is available. The content of Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius's video on the jobs reaction also could not be confirmed. The WSJ video is a discussion among Democratic voters ahead of the midterms and contains no market information, so it is referenced only as policy-risk context (the balance of power in Congress).