The White House says Alaska LNG is part of Korea's investment, but our government says it's still under discussion. Steel and steel pipe stocks hit their daily limit up. Is it okay to chase them now?

What the numbers add up to

The three projects announced by the White House total about $196 billion: Alaska LNG at $54 billion, a Texas gas combined-cycle plant at $22.3 billion, and eight nuclear reactors at about $120 billion (Segye Ilbo, 2026-10-01). Under the 2025 Korea-US agreement, $200 billion of the $350 billion was cash investment, with an annual cap of $20 billion (Kyunghyang, Newsis, 2025-10-29). If the White House announcement holds, nearly all of the cash investment goes into these three projects, equal to about 10 years' worth of the annual limit.

That is why the Korean government can't easily confirm Alaska. The agreement specifies 'commercial reasonableness,' and on that basis the government confirmed only the Texas project as the first. Accepting Alaska would leave almost no room for other projects.

Where the Alaska LNG project itself stands

Glenfarne, which leads the project, is targeting a final investment decision (FID) on the pipeline within 2026 and on the export terminal in early 2027. It needs to fill 80% of its 20 million tons per year of export capacity with long-term offtake contracts and has secured about 13 million tons so far: Taiwan 6 million tons, Thailand 2 million, Japan 2 million, and Korea 1 million (Pipeline & Gas Journal, 2026-03). Korea is already in as a buyer, but whether it comes in as an equity investor is a separate question. Gas supply is targeted for 2029 and LNG exports for 2031, so it will be a long time before actual steel pipe orders show up in revenue.

A movie we've already seen

Alaska-themed stocks followed the same path in 2025. When President Trump mentioned Korea's participation, Dongyang Steel Pipe hit the daily limit up at +30%, but after steel was left out of the tariff talks and Alaska was pushed off the negotiating table, it fell more than 20% from its high. SeAH Steel fell 10% even on the day the Alaska governor visited Korea. The pattern is to rise when hopes make headlines and fall when the confirmation process drags on.

Possible paths ahead

The third path is the most realistic compromise. Korea has already signed an offtake contract, and Glenfarne is looking for buyers for the remaining 3 million tons. Instead of a $54 billion equity investment, Korea would show good faith by buying more and supplying equipment. In that case, only companies with a track record of supplying pipe would remain, not the whole theme.

What should investors do

• The daily limit-up and double-digit gains on September 30 came from the White House announcement alone, without government confirmation. Chasing here is likely to mean buying the top, as in the 2025 pattern
• If you hold these stocks, take profits on part of the gain and set a stop-loss for the rest until the Korean government makes an official announcement
• If you want to invest in the Alaska project, wait for companies that land actual contracts rather than theme stocks. Order disclosures, additional KOGAS offtake contracts, and Glenfarne's pipeline FID are the confirmation signals
• The eight nuclear reactors, at $120 billion, are the largest of the three projects. Nuclear equipment stocks such as Doosan Enerbility face a less negative Korean government stance than Alaska, giving them a relatively firmer basis within the US investment theme. Keep in mind, however, that the Korean government has also classified nuclear power as a matter for future talks