The Fed was reported to have raised rates by 25bp at the September 15-16 FOMC to 3.75-4.00% (including low-quality sources; not officially confirmed). The dot plot median for year-end is 4.1%, implying one more hike this year. We could not confirm the contents of the September FOMC minutes released on October 7. Weak September jobs lowered expectations for an October hike, but long-term yields did not come down. Policy rate expectations and the term premium are decoupling.

No decisions were confirmed in this collection. However, the French 10-year yield has topped 5%, the highest since 2002, and the IMF chief warned about French government bond yields, putting heavy pressure on European bonds.

With 0.25%p hikes in both July and August, the base rate is 3.00%. An assistant governor assessed the current rate as the upper end of the previous neutral rate range. Brokerages mostly expect a hold in October, and NH Investment & Securities expects one more hike in November (final rate 3.25%).

The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to close at a record 7,818.93, and the Dow gained 253.38 points (0.49%) to 51,521.28. The Nasdaq also posted a record for the second straight session. Backdrops were lower oil prices and yields, AI enthusiasm and expectations of nearly 30% third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth (we could not directly verify the original article).

Intraday, the Dow was down about 0.6% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 0.2-0.4%, with small caps (Russell 2000) lagging more. The mood was one of gauging the Fed's September FOMC minutes and rising bond yields. The closes were S&P 500 7,801.77 (-0.22%), Dow 51,179.87 (-0.66%) and Russell 2000 2,793.20 (-1.31%).

The 10-year rose to around 5.3%, the highest since 2002, and gained about 87bp in the third quarter alone, the largest quarterly rise since 1994. French government bond yields also hit their highest since 2002. On October 7 the 10-year closed at 5.277% and the 30-year at 5.661% (figures differ by source).

AMD's CEO said compute demand exceeds supply. Marvell raised its FY2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and rose 8%, while Constellation Energy rose 13% on a $4.3 billion, 20-year nuclear power deal with Google. Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft make up more than 21% of the S&P 500, and only about 25% of stocks are above their 50-day average.

The report says the Fed raised rates by 25bp on September 16 to 3.75-4.00% (single source, not officially confirmed). The next FOMC is October 27-28, and prediction market odds of an October hike range from 25% to 50% depending on the outlet. The September dot plot median for year-end is 4.1%.

Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain blocked, and the G7 condemned a Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco facilities. A strategic reserve release on October 6 pushed oil lower, but Brent is around $98-100 and closed at $101.02 on October 7. US emergency reserves fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983.

Despite weaker-than-expected September jobs, the 10-year closed at 5.28% on October 2. The ISM services prices paid index is 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Gold was pressured by rising yields and fell to about $4,137 (-1.2%) on October 6 and $4,132.20 (-1.31%) on October 7.

Under a late-2025 agreement, the US extended its suspension of reciprocal tariffs on China until November 10, 2026. In February the Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs unlawful, and in May a Beijing summit announced the creation of a trade and investment committee. We could not confirm the state of negotiations as of October.

The merged company, Skydance, has launched. The same day, the WHO said the risk of a plague outbreak related to suspected cases in Russia was low, and Novavax fell about 9% and Moderna about 5%. First-half profits at NYSE member firms were $49.5 billion, up 51% year over year.

The KOSPI opened at 6,864.25 and closed near its lows. The KOSDAQ fell to 898.43 (-2.34%, -21.49p), surrendering the 900 level it had broken through the day before after just one day. Metals (-4.14%), transport equipment and parts (-3.54%) and machinery and equipment (-2.50%) fell sharply.

On the KOSPI market, foreign investors sold KRW 3,101.9 billion and institutions KRW 914.7 billion, while individuals bought KRW 3.31 trillion. News1 tallied foreign net selling at KRW 2.6 trillion, so there is a difference in basis. On the KOSDAQ, foreigners were at KRW -328.3 billion and institutions at KRW -227.2 billion.

On an intraday KOSDAQ basis, Wonik IPS fell 3.68%, Eo Technics 3.49% and Jusung Engineering 3.41%. On the KOSPI, medical and precision instruments rose 5.86% and entertainment and culture 3.95%. Among top market-cap names, KB Financial rose 1.02%, while HD Hyundai Heavy Industries fell 4.88%, Hanwha Aerospace 4.40% and Samsung Electro-Mechanics 4.00%.

September exports rose 83.5% year over year, topping $120 billion in a month for the first time. Semiconductor exports were $60.3 billion (+262.8%), or 49.9% of the total. The trade surplus was $49.85 billion.

The consensus has been raised by more than KRW 12 trillion from three months ago, and second-quarter operating profit was KRW 89.4 trillion. The 10-07 closes were Samsung Electronics KRW 269,500 (-0.92%) and SK Hynix KRW 1,724,000 (-2.76%). The release date differs by outlet (10-08 or 10-29), so the filing needs to be rechecked.

The BOK raised its base rate to 3.00% with 0.25%p hikes in both July and August. An assistant governor assessed the current rate as the upper end of the neutral rate range. NH Investment & Securities expects one more hike in November (final rate 3.25%).

Positioning is crowded in memory stocks, so volatility is high. 24-hour mentions of $MU rose from 218 to 383, taking first place. The same day the semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell -1.18%, and this coincides with the wait for Samsung Electronics' earnings in Korea.

Rebuttals to the $ADBE bearish DD that enterprise adoption bottlenecks, security compliance and file compatibility are the moat prevailed. Software pessimism is a minority view in the community.

Commenters point out the circularity: a $10 billion bank loan and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds, with Nvidia holding about $21 billion of SpaceX equity. It ties into the flood of bond supply at 5%-plus yields, and the same wariness appeared on YouTube.

Many dismiss Dalio's warning as coming from "someone who's been wrong for over a decade," but claims that the CAPE has stayed above 30 for nine years and concentration worries persist. Optimism is the mainstream, but comments admitting dependence on Nvidia alone stand out.

On the record Wall Street fees post, the prevailing view was that financial sector booms existed before 2008 too and are separate from real value creation. A comment noting Anthropic's 2025 revenue of about $4.5 billion and loss of $8 billion raised doubts about AI profitability.

Post summary: SpaceX is financing its Nvidia chip purchases with a $10 billion bank loan and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds.

Post summary: $BULL plunged 20% on a report from the House China Committee.

Post summary: A bearish DD arguing open-source AI clones threaten the subscription model.

Post summary: Dalio's warning that we are nearing the point where the AI bubble bursts.

Post summary: According to a New York State comptroller report, the first half came to $45.9 billion, with equity issuance +76% and corporate bonds +11%.

Post summary: Miners are converting power infrastructure into AI campuses.

The S&P 500 opened above 7,800 for the first time ever but turned lower, with the Dow at -442p (-0.8%) and the Nasdaq at -234p (-0.8%) (intraday). The 10-year at 5.35%, WTI above $90 and Brent above $101 weighed, and there was heavy wait-and-see ahead of the afternoon Treasury auction and Fed minutes. Chevron's CEO warned that inventory buffers are exhausted, while Interior Secretary Burgum said Gulf supply is returning to pre-conflict levels. As a government statement, it carries an optimistic bias.

He expects a choppy market through year-end. To justify AI capex through 2027, AI demand would need to reach about $1.4 trillion by 2028, and the equity risk premium (forward earnings yield minus the 10-year) is about -10bp, negative for the first time since the dot-com bubble. With semiconductor earnings growth at its peak, he prefers hyperscalers and infrastructure software over semiconductors.

He said that two years ago the company put 2028 data center revenue at $15 billion, but implied revenue in analyst consensus is now above $30 billion. His argument is that connectivity (optical interconnect, switching) is the next bottleneck after compute and memory. This is a statement from an interested party.

On reports that SpaceX is raising $40 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips (a $10 billion bank loan and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds, led by Apollo), the hosts flagged that AI financing has become routine. This week's Treasury auctions of $39 billion in 10-years and $22 billion in 30-years and Broadcom's $60 billion chip financing overlap, making capital competition intense. The Bitcoin video sees the mid-$80K range as constructive but cites rates, oil and dollar strength as downside factors, and $500-600 million in long positions were liquidated.

It reads Nvidia's $2 billion investment in Reflection AI (valued at about $25 billion) as diversification of risk from its customers being concentrated in four: Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and Meta. Claims are made that 58-80% of US AI startups use Chinese open-source models.

He argues that "something is about to break," citing more emergency 401(k) withdrawals, a record-low savings rate, a 4% rise in average new car prices (monthly payment $765) and mortgage rates above 7%. This is cautionary content from a personal finance YouTuber and may be exaggerated.

For the Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery merger, the key is whether streaming growth offsets the decline in linear TV. The French 10-year topped 5% last week, the highest in 24 years. Constellation Brands fell despite beating earnings and raising guidance.