The policy rate is 3.75-4.00%. The median dot in the September projections is 4.1% for year-end, pointing to one more hike this year. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said further hikes are needed over the next 6-9 months, and Governor Waller said more hikes are needed but timing and size are flexible. Markets lean toward an October hold and a December hike. Even with weak hiring, 3.4% inflation sustains the case for a hike.

The policy rate is 3.00% a year. It raised rates by 0.25pp each in July and August, taking it from 2.50% to 3.00%. Brokerages expect a hold in October, one hike in November (to a final 3.25%), and see 3.50% as possible if oil stays high. The won is at 1,338.5 per dollar (Oct 8 close), below the mid-September forecast range of 1,367-1,379 despite expectations of Fed hikes.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,765.36 (-0.47%) and the Nasdaq at 27,193.34 (-1.25%), while the Dow rose 0.10%. The SOX fell as much as 4% intraday, with Arm, Intel and Marvell down more than 6% and Micron down more than 5%. The VIX is 15.41.

OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue at the end of September was about $50 billion. The $68 billion figure circulating in the market included partners' gross revenue. CoreWeave fell more than 7%, Oracle, Intel and Super Micro about 5%, AMD nearly 4% and Nvidia nearly 3%.

Oracle closed at $135.69 (-5.48%), down about 30% year to date. It is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs on financing through a separate chip-dedicated entity, and has quarterly capex of $28.5 billion for June-August, a contract backlog of $664 billion and long-term debt above $160 billion. Broadcom (more than $50 billion) and SpaceX ($40 billion) are also pursuing debt financing in the same period.

The September meeting raised the policy rate by 0.25pp to 3.75-4.00%, and the minutes show most participants saw another hike by year-end as appropriate. August inflation is 3.4% y/y, with core at 3%. Futures point to an October hold and a December hike. Musalem said further hikes are needed over the next 6-9 months.

The $22 billion 30-year bond was awarded at 5.618%, with a bid-to-cover of 2.54x versus the 2.41x average. Indirect bidders took 72.3%. After the auction the 30-year yield fell to 5.602% and the 10-year to 5.227%. On October 7 the 10-year hit 5.35% intraday, the highest since 2002.

Brent closed up 4% at $104.28 and WTI up 3.6% at $91.49 (CNBC basis). Over the past week nine tankers were attacked near Hormuz, and the hurricane shut in about 25% of Gulf of Mexico output (500,000 barrels a day). Gains narrowed after Trump said he would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

SpaceX agreed to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800MHz paired spectrum (up to 14MHz). The price was not disclosed and FCC approval is required. After hours, Verizon was down about 7%, AT&T about 8% and T-Mobile 7%, while SpaceX rose 3%.

Net revenue was $25.27 billion (+5.6%) and adjusted EPS of $2.34 topped the $2.29 estimate. But weakness in North America led it to lower its full-year core EPS growth guidance to 2.5-3%. The CEO said additional cost cuts will be implemented within months.

Some G20 countries refused to form a cooperation framework. The U.S. is conducting Section 301 investigations into 16 economies including China, and there are reports it is considering a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods.

The KOSPI fell for a third straight session and closed below 6,600 for the first time in 14 sessions. Foreign investors net sold about 1.56 trillion won and institutions about 1.16 trillion won, while individuals net bought about 2.68 trillion won. Monthly options expiry flows added to the pressure. The KOSDAQ closed at 892.27 (-0.69%).

Since the peak (9,114.55 on June 22), the Nasdaq is up 5.24%, the S&P 500 up 4.40% and Taiwan's TAIEX up 3.29%, but the KOSPI fell to the 5,000s in late July and has moved sideways in the 7,000s. Year to date, the KOSPI is up 56.84% and Taiwan up 70.36%. Foreign investors have net sold a cumulative 96.6 trillion won since June.

Consolidated revenue was 195 trillion won, operating profit rose about 8.8x year over year and the operating margin was about 55%. Memory (including HBM) led the results. The figure slightly beat the LSEG consensus (106.1 trillion won), but the shares closed at 262,000 won (-2.42%) and SK Hynix at about 1,681,000 won (-2.44%).

Exports rose 83.5% year over year and the trade surplus was $49.85 billion. Semiconductor exports were $60.3 billion (+262.8%), 49.9% of the total. Cumulative January-September exports of $814.5 billion exceeded last year's full-year total ($709.3 billion).

Revenue was 9.6434 trillion won and operating profit rose more than fivefold from the second quarter. It includes 416.9 billion won in U.S. IRA production tax credits, and excluding them it was about 339.1 billion won. Operation of five North American ESS sites and full-capacity running of the Hyundai joint venture contributed. The shares closed at 375,000 won (-2.85%).

Third-quarter consolidated operating profit of 781.8 billion won (+13.5%) fell well short of the 1.0301 trillion won consensus, and the shares plunged about 10% the previous day to 208,000 won. DB Securities raised its target price to 265,000 won and expects AI data-center chiller orders to exceed 3 trillion won this year.

The retail subscription competition ratio was 408 to 1, and in the institutional book-building about 98% bid at or above the top of the offer price range. It is scheduled to list on the KOSDAQ on October 20, with a market cap of about 1.0054 trillion won at the offer price.

This is the defense that it is a difference in methodology (whether revenue routed through partners is included). The other side argues "Trillion dollar infrastructure investment for something generating just $50B in revenue and already below estimates sounds like a bubble popping event" (r/wallstreetbets). Actual prices, with the Nasdaq at -1.25% and SMH at -2.84%, reacted more in line with the skeptics.

Retail dip-buying sentiment lingers after the selloff. This contrasts with MU, whose mention count dropped sharply in a day (from 392 to 219). It means retail buying did not fully absorb the decline.

The 10-year at 5.288%, the 2-year at 4.798% and Brent at about $104 were mentioned together. Because the timing of a hike depends on data, the uncertainty premium is likely to persist until the October 14 CPI.

The timing, with the announcement the day before the 120-day lockup expires, drew suspicion. There is also a short-term scenario of "a spike tomorrow morning and then a chance to sell." After-hours reaction of SpaceX +3% and the three carriers -7 to -8% shows the actual market read it as a business threat.

OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue is about $50 billion, lower than the roughly $68 billion reported earlier. Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave fell.

The daily thread. Jokes and self-deprecation dominate, and loss-porn posts such as "SPY: -.45% My IRA: -5.4% My trading account: -30%" stand out.

The author admits that the four-year cycle hypothesis, which predicted BTC would be below $40,000 by now, was wrong, and proposes a possible low date (around October 8, about $37,400).

The prevailing suspicion is that an announcement the day before the lockup expires looks like promotion ahead of selling pressure.

A summary that the minutes confirmed more hikes but did not give timing. It led to discussion of the burden on long-dated bonds (TLT).

The Fast Money panel thinks that even if earnings season is good, rate-sensitive sectors won't be rescued, and that even if a year-end S&P rally is possible, a broad advance will be hard. Since June 1, 89% of S&P 500 stocks have fallen 10%, and the top five stocks make up about 28% of the index. The VIX is about 15.5, down 30%, but the MOVE is up 30%.

The closing broadcast said tech stocks were weak on the OpenAI revenue report. Kalshi puts the probability of gasoline exceeding $4 a gallon on November 3 at more than 80%.

The host thought the timing of a hike lies in December rather than October. USTR's Greer said 14 economies signed a joint statement on overproduction and that relations with China are "stable." Greer's claim that Hormuz is "essentially open" conflicts with analysis from the FT and other videos.

It says the September FOMC minutes show all members backed the first 25bp hike in three years. Tech stocks rose 5.6% last month while most other sectors fell, so market breadth is poor. Mortgage rates are approaching 7.5%.

The AI debt video cites wider SpaceX CDS, Oracle CDS at a record high, and an open primary market but weak secondary market. The issue is not demand but whether cash flows return fast enough to service the debt.

The crypto video reports that about $485 million left Bitcoin ETFs in one day, erasing October's gains. It rebuts the idea that government-linked wallet transfers to Coinbase are a sell signal.

Early in the war, Treasuries should have risen as a safe haven, but bonds fell first. It is a signal that oil is propping up inflation. Natural gas is up 160% since the war began, and Europe depends on the U.S. for more than half of its imported gas.

The stock has risen more than 400% in two years after pivoting to on-site power generation for AI data centers. Operating capacity is about 4,000MW and delivery for new equipment is around 2030.

Lee Ji-hwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory, said Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix share prices were distorted by flow factors and may normalize next week. The factors include options expiry, a report of about 18 trillion won of semiconductor ETF rebalancing sales, and concerns about supply related to SK Hynix's ADR. By contrast, Lee Joo-yeon, CEO of M Investment, said not to rush into new buying and to look at KOSDAQ small and mid caps.

It explains that Samsung Electronics' quarterly operating profit topped 100 trillion won for the first time, yet the stock was weak and flows moved from large-cap semiconductors to materials, parts and equipment names. The number of consecutive days of foreign net selling differed within the broadcast, 9 trading days versus 7.