The Fed raised rates by 25bp in September for the first time in three years, and minutes released on October 7 showed all 19 participants backed the hike, with a majority expecting another increase this year. The September jobs shock cut the odds of an October hike from about 70% to 20~25%, but a December hike remains fully priced. Markets read this as "near-term hike expectations have faded, but inflation and fiscal pressures are driving long-term yields," and the October 14 CPI and Chair Warsh's remarks on the 16th will set the tone for the October 27~28 FOMC.

Because the ECB is in a hiking cycle, it is seen as having little room to contain the selloff in French government bonds and a renewed bank "doom loop." Eurozone September inflation is high at 3.8%, and EUR/USD is near a 17-month low at 1.1206. This collection did not find any ECB remarks from the day.

After consecutive hikes in July and August, a "hawkish hold" to assess the effects of tightening is the dominant view for the October 22 MPC meeting. With inflation threatening 3% and U.S. rates rising, a further hike (to 3.25~3.5%) remains possible. Woori Finance Research Institute forecasts the 3-year KTB at 4.05% and KRW/USD at 1,350 won by the end of October.

The probability of a hike on October 30 is about 25%. Bond specialists see the "real detonator" for global yields as the risk that yen carry funds exit U.S. Treasuries as rising JGB yields narrow the U.S.-Japan rate gap.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,811.54, the Dow gained 0.8% to 51,654.95 and the Nasdaq added 0.6% to 27,366.17. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.6%, while only the Russell 2000 fell 0.9%. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 14.1% and the Nasdaq 17.7%.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on the 13th, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on the 14th. S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are expected to grow more than 30%, but the bank index has fallen 9% over the past month. The CPI on the 14th is expected at 3.6% headline and 2.5% core.

Brent rose as high as $105.88 intraday on reports that the White House had requested pre-election strike options, then slipped back to the $104 range after Trump said an attack was on hold, settling at $104.72 (+0.42%). The naval blockade remains in place, and Iran's foreign minister said Tehran would respond within days to the U.S. reply on a plan to reopen the strait.

The 10-year yield hovered around 5.25%, close to Wednesday's 24-year high of 5.364%. Higher oil prices from the Middle East war have stoked fears of inflation and further rate hikes. Even so, the Nasdaq posted its fourth straight weekly gain.

SpaceX said it would buy nationwide 800MHz spectrum from Grain Management to build Starlink Mobile into a wireless carrier. On the 9th, the S&P 500 telecom index fell as much as 9.7% intraday, its steepest drop since March 2020, with T-Mobile -12.2%, AT&T -9.7% and Verizon -9.1%. The deal requires FCC approval.

Delta lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10~5.60 from $6.50~7.50. The Iran war is expected to add about $6 billion to annual fuel costs. Third-quarter revenue rose 16%, and the company expects about 20% growth in the fourth quarter as well.

Apple reportedly cut October component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by 15~20% after demand softened following a $100 price increase driven by higher memory costs. Apple shares fell 1.7% intraday, and early demand will become clear in its November 6 earnings.

After the CMS announcement, Humana said 95% of its members are in plans rated 4 stars or higher, and the stock jumped about 15%. The 2028 bonus is estimated at about $4.8 billion. J.P. Morgan expects the share of 4-star-plus plans at UnitedHealth and CVS to fall sharply.

The Cleveland Fed nowcast puts CPI on the 14th at 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year on the headline, followed by PPI on the 15th. ASML on the 14th and TSMC later in the week were cited as gauges of AI demand. Fed Chair Warsh speaks on a panel at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings on the 16th.

Samsung Electronics posted preliminary third-quarter revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, but the KOSPI fell 2.62%. Large-cap chipmakers were pushed lower by net selling of 2.4406 trillion won from foreign investors and 1.9332 trillion won from institutions (including NXT), and decliners overwhelmed advancers 625 to 252.

From August 31 to October 8, Micron rose 11.90% and TSMC ADRs 12.55%, while Samsung Electronics gained only 0.77% and SK Hynix 0.43%. Foreign investors sold a net 22.1277 trillion won of the two stocks, and short-term trading in leveraged ETFs and profit-taking weighed on prices.

With about 55 trillion won of buybacks at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix completed, the buyer that had been absorbing supply is gone. Mirae Asset Securities said the end of buybacks is not a sell signal but that foreign and institutional flows will now be reflected more directly in prices. Seoul Finance's compilation puts this week's band at 6,470 to 6,820, with resistance at the 60-day moving average of 6,728.14.

LG Energy Solution's preliminary third-quarter revenue was a record 9.6434 trillion won (+59.0% YoY), with operating profit of 756 billion won (+25.7%). Growth in North American ESS and higher EV shipments drove the results; the stock closed +2.56% and Samsung SDI +1.25%.

Meritz Securities estimated Samsung Electronics' third-quarter memory operating profit at about 109 trillion won. Shipments rose 3~4%, but average selling prices jumped 19~20%. Next year's operating profit forecast is 632.4 trillion won from Meritz versus a consensus of 538.9212 trillion won.

Combined purchases of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix by Kiwoom Securities' top 1% performing investors fell to 111.3 billion won from 304.2 billion won the previous week. Buying spread across Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Jusung Engineering, Samsung SDI and SK Innovation.

Ahead of the October 22 MPC meeting, Woori Finance Research Institute expects the base rate to be held at 3.00%, citing the need to assess the effects of the July and August hikes, a surge in market rates and a stable currency. It forecasts the 3-year KTB at 4.05% and KRW/USD at 1,350 won by the end of October.

A serious analysis citing the withdrawal of AI-related IPOs such as Firmus and SoftBank Energy and weakness in junk bonds. It follows the same thread as Coin Bureau's point that Oracle construction loans are trading at 89 cents on the dollar and the October 8 report of OpenAI's revenue being revised down. In market data, SMH is already reflecting this doubt ahead of the index, down 4.6% from its October 6 high.

This surfaced alongside reports that global PC shipments plunged more than 20%. It points in the same direction as Apple's 15~20% cut in iPhone 18 Pro orders, with soaring memory prices eroding end-product demand. It directly contradicts WSB's "$MU $1,200" meme and ties into Samsung Electronics' "sold less, earned more" results, with revenue about 5% below expectations.

Comments were overwhelmingly "AVGO is fundamentals, TSLA is a casino." $TSLA trades at about 158 times forward earnings ahead of its October 21 results. Even within the AI theme, investors are screening on valuation and earnings visibility, though $AVGO trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages remains a timing concern for buyers.

The calculation shows that meeting ASML's annual guidance of 43~45 billion euros would require a fourth quarter well above its previous quarterly record (9.7 billion euros). This matches the market view that ASML on October 14 and TSMC on the 15th will set the direction for chips after the OpenAI controversy.

A warning about AI concentration in retirement portfolios. It mirrors a Goldman volatility trader's observation that hedge fund concentration in the Magnificent 7 is at a record high, meaning that if doubts about AI demand are confirmed, index ETF holders carry the same risk.

A post predicting a delay to Anthropic's IPO, citing withdrawn AI-related IPOs and weakness in junk bonds.

A post reading the end of Las Vegas hockey sellouts as a sign of economic slowdown. The author is a perma-bear, so credibility is limited.

A post comparing AVGO's +221% AI revenue and 21x forward P/E with TSLA's 158x forward P/E.

A post weighing a put entry while criticizing Muse's cost-to-return profile and data collection practices.

A request to review an AI-heavy portfolio ahead of retirement.

Issued October 9, proposals due December 8, selection in spring 2027. This year's budget is $272.3 million, with about $2.1 billion over five years.

$NVDA mentions rose from 15 to 34 and $AMD from 8 to 23, but SMH fell for two straight days, -2.84% on October 8 and -0.65% on the 9th, and is 4.6% below its October 6 high. Community interest is tilting toward buying the dip, but prices have not yet responded. WSB's bullish memory memes reflect the same divergence, and in Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been sharply sidelined relative to Micron.

$TLT mentions rose from 5 to 13. TLT was flat at $77.98 (+0.14%) and the 10-year yield remains near its high at 5.244%, consistent with investors scouting for an entry point into long bonds at high yields.

The observation that Friday's SPY volume was the lowest since 2019 fits with the VIX at 14.84 (a five-session low). Investors are on the sidelines ahead of this week's CPI, bank and TSMC events, and thin liquidity could amplify volatility depending on the outcomes.

r/economics and WSB talk about a jobs shock and slowing consumption, yet XLY rose +1.02%. This reads as a "bad news is good news" reaction, with weaker data lowering rate-hike expectations. Delta's profit warning, however, lends weight to the community's concerns.

BTC mentions halved, and the conversation is about hardware wallet security rather than price. BTC rebounded for three days at +0.76%, but the technical scan showed no BTC or ETH signals either, so both interest and momentum have cooled.

The video noted that Project Jupiter, Stargate's New Mexico site, has been held up not by chips but by gas pipeline permitting, pushing its start-up from August 2026 to February 2027. Oracle's quarterly capex of $28.5 billion has pushed free cash flow negative, total debt stands at $156 billion, and $18 billion of construction loans trade at 89 cents on the dollar. At the time of the video, Oracle shares were down 56% from their peak a year earlier. This is the same structural doubt that made Oracle the biggest decliner at -5.58% when OpenAI's revenue was reported lower on October 8.

He turned positive around the second quarter of this year after being cautious a year ago, and sees AI infrastructure as still in its first half. The question is not whether AI revenue rises but by how much, and he looks to the results of Anthropic, which is tipped to list this year, for clues. His rule of not holding stocks whose intrinsic value falls below the share price on a 50bp change in the discount rate implies using rate sensitivity as a stock-selection criterion now that the 10-year is swinging between 5.2% and 5.36%.

He summed up Samsung Electronics' third quarter as "sold less, earned more." Revenue was about 5% below expectations and profit about 2% above, a mix effect from HBM revenue growing 50~60% quarter over quarter. As the reason large-cap memory is stalling, he cited the won strengthening from the 1,400s to the 1,300s per dollar, lowering next year's EPS assumptions. That logic explains the current phase of KRW/USD around 1,342.99 won combined with foreign selling, and he sees materials, parts and equipment as better positioned to benefit from record capex at the three memory makers and TSMC next year.

She cited AI infrastructure-driven inflation, prolonged high policy rates, $2 trillion annual fiscal deficits and QT as reasons long-term yields did not fall even though September payrolls of 29,000 missed the consensus of about 90,000. She put the upper stress level for the 10-year at 5.3% or higher, and it did hit 5.364% intraday on October 7. Her diagnosis is that the unwinding of the yen carry trade due to rising JGB yields is the real detonator, and her strategy is to buy short-term bonds with maturities of five years or less in installments.

Republicans are in trouble due to high oil prices and high rates, and prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of Democrats retaking the House at about 90% and the Senate at about 61.5%. One panelist said stocks have risen after every midterm without exception, while another said a Republican president with a Democratic Congress has historically been the worst combination and left open the possibility of a correction from mid-month. Trump's "no Iran strike before the election" remark fits in the same context of electoral pressure.

Foreign investors and institutions sold a net 4 trillion won or so before the holiday, pushing the KOSPI down to the 6,600 level, but most panelists expect a rebound in late October to early November. With Samsung Electronics' buyback finished, large-cap upside is limited, so they recommended small and mid-cap KOSDAQ chip stocks and batteries. The case for batteries rests on next year's earnings growth of about 130% (vs. about 40% for chips), ESS as a second engine, and hopes that tax credits will be restored in a blue wave; LG Energy Solution indeed held at +2.56% in the October 8 selloff on record quarterly revenue.

Chinese brands such as BYD have grown quickly in the Korean market within a year, but the show argued that Hyundai and Kia are holding up well, gaining U.S. market share even as tariffs squeeze margins. Despite record quarterly sales in India in the third quarter, Hyundai Motor and Kia fell -3.42% and -2.55% respectively on October 8, showing that foreign flows outweigh earnings for near-term share prices.