The minutes of the September FOMC meeting (10-07) were hawkish, showing broad support for the September hike and a majority view in favor of further hikes this year. Some read the weak September jobs data as lowering the odds of an October hike. The policy rate level is reported differently across sources, so we do not state a figure. President Trump opened an investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook (10-09), adding a new variable of central bank independence. The rate and dollar reaction on 10-09 was muted.

No decisions were confirmed this week. French government bond yields rose to their highest since 2002, and a senior Bundesbank official reportedly called the selloff in European bonds a "clear warning sign." The possibility of ECB intervention is the talk of the market.

Based on search summaries, the policy rate is 3.00%, after 25bp hikes in both July and August. Among Monetary Policy Board members' six-month-ahead views, 10 see 3.25%, 6 see 3.50% and 5 see 3.00%, tilting toward further hikes (original not verified). The August current account surplus and the semiconductor boom are supporting the won.

On 10-09, the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 (+0.6%, +1.2% on the week), the Nasdaq at 27,366.17 (+0.6%) and the Dow at 51,654.95 (+0.8%). The Russell 2000 fell 0.9% on the week, lagging for a second straight week.

The 10-year yield hit 5.35% intraday on 10-08 and closed at 5.24% on 10-09. Auction yields were 5.30% for the 10-year and 5.62% for the 30-year.

The FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue at about $50 billion, below expectations of about $70 billion. On 10-08, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.4%, Broadcom 4.4% and Oracle 5.5%. These figures are [single source].

SpaceX will acquire Grain Management's 800MHz spectrum for about $8 billion (subject to FCC approval). T-Mobile fell 13.3% and AT&T 10.8%, wiping $40 billion to $45 billion off the three carriers' market caps, while Crown Castle rose about 13%. [single source]

The warning says power supply constraints could delay AI data center buildouts. Oracle's five-year CDS stands at 261bp, a record high. [single source]

With US fuel prices rising amid the Iran conflict, the first shipment of Russian diesel is coming in. US diesel is at $6.28 per gallon, above its 2022 peak. Analysts see little price impact.

Delta lowered its profit outlook on fuel costs despite strong demand. It said it can absorb $6 billion in higher fuel costs.

The president has launched an investigation into a Fed governor. The next FOMC meeting is 10-27~28, and the market reaction was muted as of 10-09 (10-year +1.3bp, 30-year -0.6bp).

Gold rebounded to $4,216.30 (+1.43%) and copper to $6.6425 (+1.89%). Some analysts see a possible bottom in gold. UBS named four miners, saying copper supply will lag demand for years (undated).

The KOSPI closed at 6,625.93, down 2.62%. Foreign and institutional investors together sold more than KRW 3 trillion net, while retail investors bought a net KRW 2.55 trillion.

Revenue was about KRW 195 trillion and operating profit KRW 107.4 trillion, about 8.8 times the KRW 12.2 trillion a year earlier. Operating profit was +0.71% versus consensus, broadly in line. The shares fell 2.42% (KRW 262,000).

Foreign investors sold about KRW 865.6 billion of SK hynix and about KRW 352.2 billion of Samsung Electronics, and bought about KRW 70.6 billion of ISU Petasys. On the KOSDAQ, Jusung Engineering was the top net buy at about KRW 59.8 billion.

The won strengthened for a fifth straight session. Exporter dollar-selling, the August current account surplus and Samsung Electronics' results supported the won despite global dollar strength. A range of 1,320 to 1,360 is expected next week.

August exports rose 82.1% (semiconductors +206.1%), and the cumulative surplus for January to August is $279.2 billion. September exports were $120.94 billion (+83.5%), with semiconductors at $60.3 billion (+262.8%).

LG Energy Solution rose 2.56% and EcoPro BM 3.45%. By contrast, SK Square fell 8.06%, Samsung Biologics 4.54%, Hyundai Motor 3.42% and KB Financial 3.38%, and the financial sector index fell 4.11%.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff put the flight distance of the missile launched on 10-03 at more than 700km, while Japan's Defense Ministry put it at 680km. North Korea claimed a 1,000km flight.

LS Securities set a weekly band of 6,600 to 7,100. The variables are US CPI and PPI, interest rates and oil, semiconductor earnings and the US midterm elections.

The point is that the market cap increase relies on demand from loss-making AI companies. The FT's report on OpenAI's revenue on 10-08 and the 3.4% plunge in semiconductors bore out this concern.

The argument rests on a trailing P/E of 14 and a forward P/E of 6. The memory boom narrative fits with Samsung's KRW 107.4 trillion operating profit and Korea's semiconductor exports of +262.8%. Still, short-term swings are large, as Micron's 4.8% drop on 10-08 shows.

Most are skeptical, based on the calculation that the $2T IPO target presumes $80B in net income. A minority defend it on the strength of spreading real-world usage.

Microsoft's operating cash flow rose from $136.2B to $182.9B, but capital expenditure rose from $64.6B to $115.9B, so FCF fell from $71.6B to $67.0B. This points in the same direction as the Oracle credit warning.

Tower stocks ($AMT, $CCI) rose. A structural event that split winners and losers. The news article's AT&T -10.8% and this post's -9.8% differ because of different tallying bases.

A valuation question asking how much profit the $2T target requires.

Comments are mostly skeptical ("AI is valued on hopes and dreams"), while a minority defend it based on spreading workplace adoption.

Summarizes the plunge in the three carriers and the rise in tower stocks, citing Reuters.

Comments split between caution ("like the dot-com era, a bubble can burst even when technology changes the world") and defense ("AI isn't going away").

Comments see little effect, noting that 36 million barrels of Russian supply is "less than a week's worth." Much political criticism.

Comments lean pessimistic: "they won't accept welfare cuts, so borrowing will eventually rise."

Opinion is split between those who say buying directly from the official seller is safe and those who say even the manufacturer can't be fully trusted.

The community is mostly skeptical of AI, yet on 10-09 the Nasdaq rose 0.64% and XLK 0.51%. The declines were concentrated in semiconductors (SMH -0.65%) and telecoms (XLC -1.51%). Sentiment showed up in sector weakness before it showed up in the index.

The plunge in $TMUS, $T and $VZ, the most heavily discussed topic on Reddit, is confirmed by XLC -1.51%. $ASTS mentions fell from 266 the previous day to 53 but remain No. 1, so the SpaceX deal has also fueled debate over small satellite communications stocks.

Bearishness in macro subreddits (dollar at a 16-month high, French yields) matches the 10-year yield of 5.244% and the dollar index of 102.21. By contrast, the VIX is low at 14.84, so market volatility is calm relative to the community's wariness. This gap means positioning has not yet been unwound ahead of the CPI release.

WSB's bullish case for $MU fits with Korean semiconductor exports and Samsung's earnings, but on the same day large-cap Korean semiconductor names were the top foreign net sells. There is a gap between community optimism and Korean flows.

Security anxiety ran high over the Ledger incident, but prices held with BTC +1.07% and ETH +0.55%. This is consistent with the near-absence of price discussion.

The title of the interview with Unlimited CEO Bob Elliott reads to the effect that "the stock market looks like one big bet on AI's success." Judging by the title, the tone appears to flag AI concentration risk, but we could not confirm the basis or figures. This view points in the same direction as this week's semiconductor plunge and Reddit's AI bubble debate.

A video on a possible merger of Starbucks and Chipotle (SBUX, CMG). We could not confirm the market outlook.

A video suggesting North Korean provocation. We could not confirm the market impact.