They say the number of areas blocking data center construction because AI is straining the power supply has grown nearly sixfold in a year. What opportunities and risks does this mean for my power and infrastructure investments?
2026-09-25
The reality behind the sixfold surge in moratoriums
The surge in data center siting moratoriums from "92 in June → 520 now," cited by the ETF Edge panel in today's report, is no exaggeration. This year, more than 300 data center-related bills were introduced in over 30 states in just six weeks, and on July 14 New York State imposed a blanket freeze of up to one year on new permits for large hyperscale data centers. Oklahoma (SB1488) banned data centers of 100MW or more until November 2029, and in Texas, ERCOT and PUCT began re-reviewing data center projects in August at Governor Abbott's direction. Just yesterday (9/24), Chicago introduced a moratorium, saying "AI power costs are pushing up residential electricity rates" (techtimes, 2026-09-24).
The underlying demand is genuinely that large. According to S&P Global 451 Research, U.S. data center power consumption will grow from 64.4GW in 2025 (+25% YoY) to 75.8GW in 2026, 108GW in 2028 and 134.4GW in 2030. Some estimates put the cost of powering AI data centers alone at $1.4 trillion through 2030.
An asymmetry of winners and losers — the more regulation blocks, the bigger the workaround
Paradoxically, moratoriums only block traditional grid connections, pushing demand toward "behind-the-meter" private generation. About 90GW of gas-turbine self-generation capacity is currently in planning and development, with 3GW coming online this year alone — and the biggest beneficiaries of this workaround are the following four companies.
| Ticker | Position | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova (GEV) | Gas turbine maker | $2.4B in electrification equipment orders in Q1 2026 alone, exceeding its full-year 2025 total in a single quarter |
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | Owns 22GW of nuclear | Long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with MS and Meta |
| Vistra (VST) | Gas + nuclear generation | $4.7B acquisition of Cogentrix, 20-year nuclear power supply deal with Meta |
| Quanta Services (PWR) | Infrastructure construction | Data center segment is its fastest-growing, record backlog |
These four stocks are structured so that orders actually increase as moratoriums spread — when regulation blocks grid connections, hyperscalers work around it with their own generation, and these companies supply that generation equipment and construction.
Risks
Permitting delays can push back the start-up of specific projects by one to two years, and if local opposition (resistance to higher electricity bills) becomes a political issue, the PPA contracts themselves could be reopened for renegotiation. More broadly, as the power bottleneck deepens, it could spread into a secondary bottleneck in which the build-out pace of the entire AI infrastructure value chain (semiconductor and server shipments) is held back by the pace of power supply.
So what should investors do
It is easy to misread the spread of moratoriums as bad news for data center and AI themes, but in reality it is closer to a structural signal that demand is being reallocated to the power infrastructure supply chain (GEV, CEG, VST, PWR). However, these stocks already have substantial future growth priced into their backlog-based valuations, so for new entries it is safer to watch whether backlog growth slows in quarterly earnings as the confirming indicator.