Samsung Electronics reports third-quarter earnings this Thursday, and its share buyback is set to end right around then. If earnings come in strong, will the stock rise, or could it actually fall on the day of the announcement?
2026-10-04
The key is not "how good the earnings are" but "how high expectations have climbed"
The 10/8 preliminary results will move the stock based on the gap with market expectations rather than the numbers themselves. Brokerage consensus currently puts operating profit at 100-104 trillion won, and some, such as CEO Noh Geun-chang, are calling for around 110 trillion won (Sampro TV). The problem is that among retail investors, expectations have already shifted toward a "whisper number" above consensus. In this situation, the stock's reaction can be muted even if results slightly beat consensus.
What the last two third-quarter preliminary results showed
| Release date | Consensus | Actual operating profit | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-08 | About 10.3 trillion won | 9.1 trillion won | Missed by 1.3 trillion won; Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun issued an apology |
| 2025-10-14 | About 10.3 trillion won | 12.1 trillion won | Earnings surprise of more than 10%; target prices raised |
Sources: Kyunghyang Weekly (2024-10-08), Jeonbuk Ilbo (2025-10-14)
In both cases the gap between consensus and actual results was around 10%. This means brokerage estimates lag reality when memory prices are moving fast. This time memory prices are surging, so there is a strong chance that "estimates are lower than reality." Micron guiding next-quarter revenue to about $61.5 billion and having already contracted more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 volume points the same way (Asia Economy, 2026-10-02).
But this time the flow clock overlaps with the earnings clock
As the report noted, Samsung Electronics' remaining buyback of about 840 billion won will be completed within two to three trading days (Financial News, 2026-10-03). It will be used up in a little over two days after the market reopens on Tuesday 10/6, so the earnings release (10/8) and the end of buyback purchases fall on almost the same day. Buying by other corporations (buybacks) was a big reason the index held up in September even as foreign investors sold 21.5 trillion won and retail investors sold 14.2 trillion won. If "sell the good news" profit-taking emerges on earnings day, there will be one less buyer to absorb it.
There is evidence on the other side too. CEO Lee Ji-hwan said much of the foreign selling is mechanical passive outflow driven by Korea's rising weight in MSCI, and expects foreign investors to turn net buyers in mid-October (Sampro TV). Pension funds were net buyers of 1.55 trillion won of SK Hynix in the third quarter. In other words, the flow gap is less an "empty seat" than "a seat whose next occupant is not yet visible."
So how should you actually respond?
Splitting the outcome into three branches makes the decision easier.
| Preliminary operating profit | Interpretation | Response |
|---|---|---|
| 110 trillion won or more | Meets the whisper number; estimate-upgrade cycle resumes | Rather than chasing on the day, buy in stages within the 2-3 trading days when profit-taking pushes the price down |
| 100-110 trillion won | In line with consensus; already priced in | Likely range-bound as the buyback ends. Hold your position; make new purchases only after confirming foreign flows in mid-October |
| Below 100 trillion won | A 2024-style disappointment | Check in the final results (late October) whether the cause is one-off costs (bonuses, inventory valuation, etc.) rather than the memory cycle. If the cause is one-off, it is actually a buying opportunity |
There are three points.
- Avoid going all-in on the release day. Even with good results, it is the day buyback support disappears, so volatility could rise. CEO Noh Geun-chang's advice of "range-bound for now, buy in stages" is in the same vein.
- If buying Samsung Electronics directly feels like too much, spread it into materials, parts, and equipment names. Six of the top 10 Korean ETFs by return in September were semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment ETFs. While flows into large caps are blocked, expectations for memory capex are shifting to small and mid-cap equipment stocks, making them a way to diversify earnings event risk.
- The real checkpoint is mid-October. Whether foreign investors turn net buyers when SK Hynix's buyback ends around 10/15-17 will set the direction for the fourth quarter. Until then, it pays to keep some cash.