The US and China agreed to cut tariffs on each other, and Chinese internet stocks and copper rose. Who actually gains and who loses? Is it OK to buy a China ETF now?
2026-10-06
The list of items matters more than the $60 billion figure
The "30-for-30" agreed on Sept. 28 is a framework in which each country cuts tariffs on about $30 billion of goods. But the character of the two lists differs (Strata, CNN, 2026-09-28).
| Category | Number of items | Key items |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese goods the US cuts | 77 categories | Toys, fireworks, artificial flowers, Christmas lights, coffee makers, tableware, child car seats |
| US goods China cuts | 1,619 categories | Corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, cooking oil, seafood, lumber, cosmetics, medical devices, coal |
The US picked only consumer goods that domestic manufacturing is not sensitive about. China's list, by contrast, is far broader. USTR's Jamieson Greer explained that market access improves for about 30% of US exports to China (Strata, 2026-09). On the surface it is symmetric, but the benefit flows more directly to US agriculture and energy exporters. Soybeans, however, were excluded (Farm Week, 2026-09). That means a core product for American farmers was left out.
How this differs from the report
The report cited the Nov. 10 expiry of the suspension as a key variable. But search results show the two countries extended the truce by two months to Jan. 10, 2027, at the same time (CNN, Time, 2026-09-28). The article the report cited may reflect a schedule from before the extension. This needs checking, and if true, Nov. 10 is not a dated risk but one pushed back to January.
How much of the market reaction has support
KWEB +2.93% and FXI +1.99% are short-term reactions to the agreement. But the tariff cuts target consumer goods and farm products, so the link to Chinese internet companies' profits is weak. It is better to read the rise in internet stocks as easing of policy risk rather than improved earnings. If the deal wobbles, it would unwind along the same path.
Copper is different. The copper gain (+2.30%) is hard to explain by tariffs alone. LME copper was about $14,253 on Oct. 1, 4% below the September high, and the tariff premium was draining as the US deadline for a refined copper tariff decision (Sept. 28) passed without an announcement (SMM, Copper.com.au, 2026-10). So the Oct. 5 rebound may be a bounce after weakness, and it is hard to isolate the effect of the tariff deal.
Scenarios
- The truce holds through January: Trade in consumer goods and farm products grows, and policy risk for China-linked assets stays low.
- Talks collapse: There is a risk of reverting to pre-deal tariff levels. Chinese internet stocks and copper unwind first.
- Agreement on core items such as soybeans: An additional positive for US agriculture stocks and China consumer-related stocks.
What investors should do
- Do not buy a China ETF on the tariff cut alone but look at corporate earnings and the regulatory environment together. This rebound came from risk relief, not earnings.
- If investing in copper or silver, separate the tariff factor from the supply-demand factor. The tariff premium is already draining, so there is little basis for chasing.
- For US agriculture-related stocks, the omission of soybeans limits the upside. Watch for news of a soybean agreement.
This answer is an organization of information, not investment advice.