10/15, 08:45 AM
Samsung Electronics topped 100 trillion won in operating profit, so why did foreign investors sell and the stock fall? How will the KOSPI move on the 13th after the holiday?
2026-10-10
Why do foreign investors sell a stock that has already priced in the good news?
Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won slightly beat the consensus (the average of eight firms at Yonhap Infomax was 106.9887 trillion won, and 109.5 trillion won at some brokerages). The stock fell regardless. The reason lies not in the number but in who had been buying.
A structure in which the buyer has disappeared
- Share buybacks had supported the stock over the past few weeks, and it was known they would end in early to mid-October. Brokerages saw this as the point at which Samsung Electronics' prop would be removed (Money Today, 2026-10-05).
- Goldman Sachs expected mechanical selling from the combination of the October 8 rebalancing of seven semiconductor ETFs (about 19 trillion won in assets under management), option expiry and the end of the buyback (The Economist, 2026-10-07).
- Over the past month, foreign investors net sold about 4.6682 trillion won of Samsung Electronics. Profit-taking was already under way before the earnings release.
- Samsung Securities analyst Shin Seung-jin said that for the market to rise further, the growth of AI companies must be proven enough to overcome the rate burden.
The path for the 13th after the holiday
The KOSPI faces a clash between a gap opening up from the rise in U.S. stocks during the closure on the 9th, and the continuation of rising U.S. yields and SK Hynix net selling. Splitting this into scenarios gives the following.
| Path | Condition | Indicator to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | The rise in U.S. stocks is reflected as a gap and foreign net selling shrinks to under 1 trillion won a day | USD/KRW holding near 1,340 |
| Sideways | Foreign selling and individual buying offset and the index fluctuates around 6,600 | Awaiting the 15th CPI |
| Further decline | Yields exceed 5.3% before CPI and foreign investors net sell for a tenth straight session | Whether the 6,500 level holds |
The key is not earnings but the direction of flows. Until the pace of fourth-quarter HBM4 revenue growth and memory prices are confirmed, foreign investors are likely to trim weight on each rebound.
What investors should do
- If you already hold the stock, a staged response is better than cutting losses while the earnings good news fades. Consider adding only after confirming a day when foreign net selling stops.
- For new purchases, decide after seeing the gap reaction on the 13th, and do not buy all at once.
- Given that flows partly moved from large-cap semiconductors to equipment and components (Isu Petasys, Jusung Engineering and others), rechargeable batteries and shipbuilding, diversifying to reduce concentration risk is also an option. However, LG Energy Solution's operating profit is 339.1 billion won excluding 416.9 billion won in U.S. AMPC, so earnings quality needs to be examined.