Hormuz vessel traffic has fallen to a quarter, so why is oil still near $100? Then who actually makes money and who pays the cost in this situation?
2026-10-14
Oil stays around $100, so who profits and who pays?
Daily vessel transits through Hormuz fell from 138 before the war to about 31. Even with more than 77% of volume blocked, WTI is $94.68 and Brent is $106.21. Prices hold at this level because Saudi Arabia is expanding bypass pipelines and demand is weak. Put the other way, shipping costs and insurance are rising before prices, and that is where winners and losers split.
Costs rise outside the price
The Revolutionary Guard has targeted the US-UAE oil shuttle, and at least 15 vessels have been attacked since the start of October. A maritime security firm counted 12 incidents between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5, the most in a week since the war began. There are also reports that shipowners are demanding $30-40 million per round trip for the shuttle. The report cites freight costs of 25-30% of the cost of Gulf crude. The quoted oil price captures only part of this cost.
Beneficiaries and losers
| Category | Who | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiary | Energy (XLE +1.80%), natural gas (+4.80%) | Supply-risk premium, OECD inventories 177 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average |
| Beneficiary | Tanker owners | Reported record-high freight rates (2026-09-01). The report reflects early September, not the current level |
| Loser | Airlines | Delta expects fuel costs to rise by $6 billion this year and cut its full-year EPS forecast to $5.10-5.60 (from $6.50-7.50) (Reuters, CP24, 2026-10-09) |
| Loser | Consumers and logistics | Pass-through to prices via diesel and air freight |
Delta alone shows the scale. Delta has said that each one-cent rise in jet fuel adds about $40 million to annual costs (Webull, 2026). It cut its outlook because of fuel costs, not weak demand, so as long as oil stays above $100, earnings at other airlines are also under pressure. It matters that Delta has a buffer because it owns a refinery and still took this hit. Airlines without refineries may be more vulnerable, but this research could not confirm figures for individual airlines.
The direction of the asymmetry
Energy stocks earn more as oil rises, but they are the first to give it back when the supply disruption eases. When the April ceasefire was announced, WTI fell more than 17% in a day and airline stocks rebounded sharply (Barchart, 2026-04). The two sides are thus exposed to the same variable in opposite directions. Holding only one leaves you swinging widely on a single ceasefire headline.
Upside risk
Goldman warned that if vessel attacks increase, oil could rise as high as $120. In that case, energy would rise but CPI and rate pressure would grow, so it may not be a net benefit for the overall index.
What investors should do
- If you want to raise energy exposure, build in stages, allowing for the range where gains are given back on headlines. Ceasefire headlines could come around the 10/28 FOMC and the 11/3 midterms.
- Review airline holdings until oil is confirmed to be stabilizing. The first indicator to watch is whether daily transits rise from 31.
- Holding energy and airlines together offsets part of oil's swings. It is a structure that intentionally creates a hedge.