According to reports, the FOMC voted 12-0 in mid-September to raise rates by 25bp, setting the policy rate at 3.75-4.00%. This rests on a single undated report, so the exact figures need to be reconfirmed. Another undated article, by contrast, reports a hold at 3.50-3.75%. Chair Warsh says inflation is not slowing. The market reads the rise in long-term yields as the result of a resumed hiking cycle.

No new decision was confirmed in this collection. In the eurozone, reports said there would be no bailout as concerns over French debt spread.

After consecutive hikes in July and August (August 27), the policy rate stands at 3.00%. On September 10, the BOK said Middle East unrest and financial imbalances alone make it hard to conclude that another hike in October is warranted. Among board members' six-month-ahead outlooks, 10 see 3.25% and 6 see 3.50%. No new decision has been confirmed since October 8.

The Dow closed up 0.8% (51,654), the S&P 500 up 0.6% (7,811) and the Nasdaq up 0.6% (27,366), with the Dow rising 423 points. Amazon rose 3% to lead the advance, while refiners, Visa and Palantir hit record highs.

The 10-year reached 5.365% intraday and the 30-year 5.62-5.63%, while the S&P 500 pulled back from record highs. On the 9th, the 10-year closed at 5.244% and the 30-year at 5.600%. Based on a single-source snippet.

OpenAI's annualized revenue figures conflicted: $70 billion by year-end per Bloomberg, versus about $50 billion as of end-September. Oracle fell 5.5% (about $24B) in one day, then rebounded 5.6% on the day, while its credit default swaps (CDS) widened. About 60% of Oracle's contract backlog is tied to OpenAI.

On news that SpaceX will acquire about $8B of low-band spectrum, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell 8-13% (Verizon had its worst day since 2002). Tower companies rose 6-11%. Bernstein expects rents to rise 10-15% as tower tenants grow from three to four.

The U.S. will ease sanctions on Russian diesel through April 7 and take supply. It is a fuel-price stabilization measure ahead of the midterm elections. Zelensky objected, calling it an "investment in the war," and Professor Siegel said it is not a permanent solution.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29K, below expectations (about 84-90K), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. July-August were revised down by a combined 60K. The market lowered the odds of a hike at the 10-28 FOMC, but yields have since risen again.

A Fed survey shows the share of households carrying loans jumped from about 12% to nearly 20%, the highest since 2010. Delta lowered its 2026 guidance, citing a surge in jet fuel prices. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell again to 46.3.

Silver rose 3.46% ($61.11), copper 2.94% ($6.711) and gold 1.52% ($4,220.30), while GDX gained 2.95%. Gold rose 9.1% and silver 15.9% in September, so this extends the trend. The cause has not been identified.

The KOSPI closed down 177.97 points (-2.62%) and the KOSDAQ at 892.27 (-0.69%). Individuals net bought 3.6 trillion won, but foreign investors (-2.44 trillion won) and institutions (-1.93 trillion won) pulled the index down. The 9th is a holiday for Hangul Day.

It became the first listed Korean company to top 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit, slightly beating the consensus (106.64 trillion won). Even so, the shares fell 2.42% (262,000 won) and foreign investors sold for a ninth straight session. Institutions net sold 1.0813 trillion won and individuals net bought 1.3933 trillion won.

Foreign investors sold 865.6 billion won of SK Hynix, 357.0 billion won of SK Square and 352.2 billion won of Samsung Electronics, and bought 70.6 billion won of Isu Petasys, 48.3 billion won of LG Energy Solution and 38.7 billion won of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering. On the KOSDAQ, they net bought Jusung Engineering (+59.8 billion won) and Wonik IPS (+55.5 billion won).

Hanwha Aerospace fell 8.33% (891,000 won). Profit-taking continued after the successful launch, and for the second week of October (5th-9th) it is down 16.88%, while LIG Defense & Aerospace is down 19.16%.

Operating profit rose 25.7% year over year, and revenue of 9.6434 trillion won (+59%) was a quarterly record. Excluding 416.9 billion won in U.S. AMPC credits, however, operating profit is 339.1 billion won. The shares rose 2.56% even as the index plunged.

Exports rose 83.5%, with semiconductors at $60.3 billion (+263%), about half of the total. The trade surplus was $49.85 billion, and cumulative January-September exports of $814.5 billion already exceed last year's full-year total.

An FT report corrected OpenAI's annualized revenue to about $50B (from the previously circulated figure of about $70B). Because OpenAI plans to buy about $300B of compute from Oracle over roughly five years starting in 2027, the $60B annual commitment would exceed revenue, a point that was raised. Skeptical comments noted that costs rose from $10B to $40B and that Azure ($250B) and AWS ($38B) commitments stack on top. Others countered that revenue growing 233% a year is fine. The skeptical comments were longer and more specific.

T-Mobile fell 13%, and Verizon and AT&T about 10%. Most see the drop as oversold and expect a recovery within two weeks. A minority countered that the satellites are not compatible with that spectrum and that redesign and deployment would take years, and some warned of SpaceX's low cost of capital.

With consumer sentiment at 46.3, price pressure is the overwhelming complaint. One side argued that a K-shaped economy is propping up the index, while the other warned that a large amount of unrealized wealth would vanish if the AI bubble bursts.

The question is whether the remark that NAND, not just HBM, will be supply constrained through 2028 carries over to SanDisk (earnings on October 29). MU had 231 mentions, up from 212 the previous day.

Pimco sees 6% as possible, citing forced stop-loss selling of bonds by hedge funds. The poster worries about mortgage rates exceeding 8%.

A post weighing whether a $300B Oracle commitment is affordable against $50B in annual revenue.

Comments were split. Optimism based on 233% growth clashed with skepticism pointing to surging costs and accumulating commitments, and the skeptical side was more specific.

A post asking whether the carriers' plunge after news of SpaceX's roughly $8B low-band spectrum purchase is excessive.

Most see it as oversold ("Completely oversold", "recovers within 2 weeks"). A minority sees the threat as exaggerated because the satellites are not compatible.

Covers the compromise of devices sold through a reseller and the $86M theft.

The prevailing cynicism is that buying direct also leaks information and resellers are scams, so neither is safe. Others countered that Trezor also suffered a leak.

A post treating the sharp drop in consumer sentiment as a warning sign.

Price pressure is the overwhelming complaint. Counterarguments that top-10% spending supports the economy and warnings of an AI bubble collapse followed.

The earnings betting thread for Monday through Friday of next week.

Wariness about TSMC earnings and bullish bets on UNH appeared, while the weekend thread centers on a political debate over the Trump-Putin diesel deal.

The community highlighted the S&P 500 record high and short-term SPY call profits, and the SPY benchmark index did rise to 7,811.54 (+0.59%). The carriers' plunge tied to the SpaceX news and XLC -1.51% also line up. The 6% yield warning is consistent with market levels of 5.244% on the 10-year and 5.600% on the 30-year.

The community worries about the OpenAI correction and an AI bubble, but the actual market ignored this, rebounding with the Nasdaq +0.64% and Palantir and Datadog at record highs. Meanwhile, SOXL mentions jumped from 25th to 9th, yet the SMH semiconductor ETF fell -0.65%, so leveraged demand and price diverge. MU draws many mentions but runs against the weakness in SMH.

On a day when the memory boom (MU) was a hot topic on Reddit, the KOSPI fell -2.62% on foreign net selling. That is a gap between global AI semiconductor optimism and foreign outflows from Korea.

BTC mentions rose to 143, but the price gained only +1.01%, so the deterioration in sentiment is not reflected in the price.

BDA Capital's Barbara Doran believes AI demand will persist because of binding orders such as Micron's take-or-pay contracts. She says the S&P 500's forward P/E has fallen from 23 at the start of the year to 19 on earnings growth, which makes the risk-reward attractive. Unlimited's Bob Elliott sees the U.S. stock market as effectively one bet on AI's success.

Tech Check notes that Nvidia committed to invest about $100 billion in OpenAI and disbursed $30 billion in February, and that OpenAI uses the money to rent data centers from Oracle and others and to buy compute from Nvidia and AMD. Partner demand (GE Vernova's gas turbine backlog runs through 2031) is solid, but Oracle's CDS has widened.

The closing broadcast covered the Dow +423 points, S&P 500 +46 points and Nasdaq +172 points, along with Delta's guidance cut and the surge in consumer debt. Cramer sees the selloff as a mistaken assumption about an AI slowdown and defends continued infrastructure investment, while remaining wary of long-term yields. Next week's schedule is bank earnings on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, and PPI plus ASML and TSMC on Thursday.

FCC Chairman Carr draws a line, saying the market will decide winners and losers. He says more competition that lowers prices is also positive for CPI, citing broadband prices that fell 7-14% over the past year. Bernstein's Rezaei sees it as good news for tower companies.

Generac's CEO said the company underestimated the data center backup power market, which it put at $14-17 billion in March, by a factor of two to three. It has moved up its data center revenue target to $2 billion in 2027 from $1 billion in 2028.

OpenAI books only its own share of revenue routed through cloud partners, while Anthropic books the gross amount, so the same business produces different numbers. The hosts pointed out that AI-related debt in the hundreds of billions of dollars is the real risk. In crypto, JPMorgan estimates about $50 billion of inflows this year, but about $700 million left bitcoin ETFs this week, and the price slid from the high $80,000s to the low $80,000s.

An interview with Kim Hyun-soo, research fellow at Hana Securities. Rechargeable battery stocks rose on ESS expectations and hopes for policy changes after the early-November U.S. midterm elections, but lithium prices fell 10-20% in September and Korean makers are pricier than Chinese ones. Some context is unclear because of poor caption quality.