With September CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%, the probability of a December hike is about 90%, and one survey found all 100 economists polled expect a December hike. By contrast, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 12–20% on CME data and about 6% on prediction markets. The 10/22 Treasury rally suggests growth worries and the tech sell-off are moving yields more than the Fed's tightening resolve. If the 10/28 FOMC strongly signals a December hike, it could deepen the curve inversion and weigh on cyclicals.

France's 10-year yield hit 5.126% intraday, the highest since 2002, rising above Italy and Greece. That French yields climbed even on a day when safe-haven demand flooded into Treasuries means France-specific credit risk is being priced in. EUR/USD barely moved at 1.1216 (-0.10%), so it has not spread into a eurozone-wide crisis.

This was the first hold in five months after back-to-back hikes in July and August, but the BOK said it would decide "the timing and pace of further hikes," judging that growth this year and next will substantially exceed its August forecasts (3.3%, 2.9%) and that inflation will stay high next year. Q2 nominal GDP growth of 26.4%, Seoul apartment prices rising for 88 consecutive weeks, and household loans of KRW 783 trillion at the five major banks are adding pressure to hike. Meritz Securities sees a November hike as consensus and projects a terminal rate of 3.5%. The next Monetary Policy Board meeting is on November 26.

The Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.2%, while the Dow closed flat. As money rotated into defensives such as JNJ, Walmart, McDonald's and P&G and into bonds, the 10-year yield fell to about 4.945% and the 2-year to about 4.64%. Yields fell even as oil rose more than 3%, strengthening the view that the energy shock is a deflationary force.

Revenue of $64.6 billion (+26%) topped the $63.3 billion consensus, and adjusted EPS excluding $9.89 billion in legal costs was $7.40. The midpoint of Q4 revenue guidance is $74.5 billion, $900 million above expectations. However, Q3 capex of $34.9 billion pushed free cash flow to -$2.1 billion, and the midpoint of annual capex rose from $137.5 billion to $140 billion.

Adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat expectations, but revenue was flat year over year at about $28 billion and operating margin slipped below 3%. Tesla cut this year's capex plan from more than $25 billion to about $20 billion, and FSD subscribers topped 1.7 million. With no new information on a SpaceX merger, shares fell more than 3% after hours.

Fiscal Q1 revenue hit a record $8.22 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.20 beat expectations, with memory rising to 46% of systems revenue. Lam raised its 2026 WFE market outlook to the mid-$150 billion range and its 2027 outlook to more than $200 billion. But it warned shipments could slip due to component shortages and cleanroom constraints, sending shares down about 10% intraday.

On reports of Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi oil fields and an international airport, Brent rose to $111.10 and WTI to $98.98, each up about 2%. The US ordered non-essential personnel in Saudi Arabia to leave. Iran's foreign minister said prospects for peace talks are low, and Iran's president said there would be no negotiations as long as the US blockade remains.

The IRGC Navy claimed it attacked four tankers in a single day and that three others hit mines west of the Strait of Hormuz (not yet independently verified). It warned it would extend its response to US bases in the region if provocations continue. Near Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field, two people were killed by debris from an intercepted drone, but field operations were unaffected.

The Nikkei 225 fell about 3%, the KOSPI 3.5%, the Hang Seng 3% and Taiwan's TAIEX 2%. The CSI 300 dropped 2%, putting it about 20% below its June high and in a bear market, while the Hang Seng Tech index has lost more than 40% from its peak. Brent topping $112, doubts about AI investment after Tesla and Meta earnings, and a roughly 10% jump in the VIX were cited as causes.

Due to the Hormuz blockade, average crude shipping costs have risen from $3 per barrel a year ago to about $20, and to as much as $35 on Middle East routes. VLCC rates on the Gulf–East Asia route exceeded $1.4 million per day in early October, a record high. Goldman sees this as an upside risk to its year-end Brent base forecast of $90.

Global debt grew by $10 trillion in the first half alone to more than $365 trillion, and annual interest costs on advanced-economy sovereign debt reached $3.3 trillion, exceeding global defense spending. France's 10-year yield rose to 5.126% intraday on the 22nd, widening its spread over Germany (3.41%) to the widest in 15 years.

Data centers account for about 90% of the 474GW in ERCOT interconnection requests, and the audit report is due December 10. While awaiting the results, Vistra fell about 9.9% and NRG Energy about 5.7%.

Bitcoin rose to nearly $84,800 overnight before sliding to about $81,800, its largest drop in two weeks. The DeFi index fell 5.6%, and 24-hour liquidations rose 52% to $431 million. Meanwhile, US spot bitcoin ETFs drew net inflows of $1.08 billion over three days this week.

The KOSPI fell 201.89 points (3.52%) to 5,533.77, and the KOSDAQ fell 3.62% to 764.10. Retail investors bought KRW 1.0364 trillion on the KOSPI but could not stem combined selling by foreign investors (-KRW 399.1 billion) and institutions (-KRW 683.4 billion). SK hynix fell -5.49%, LG Energy Solution -5.22% and Samsung Electronics -4.03% (KRW 214,500).

After back-to-back hikes in July and August, all seven board members voted to hold. The BOK signaled further hikes, judging that growth this year and next will substantially exceed its August forecasts (3.3%, 2.9%) and that inflation will stay high next year, which was read as a hawkish hold. The next Monetary Policy Board meeting is on November 26.

SK hynix completed its roughly KRW 40 trillion buyback (24.07 million shares, 3.3% of shares outstanding, all to be cancelled) on October 21, a month ahead of schedule, and Samsung Electronics spent about KRW 15 trillion from August 24 to October 6. Even though Micron and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose overnight, the two stocks fell -4.03% and -5.49%, giving back the previous day's surge.

After CATL's Q3 net profit missed expectations despite 59% revenue growth, SK Innovation fell -8.17% (KRW 141,700), Samsung SDI -7.58%, LG Energy Solution -5.22%, EcoPro BM -9.66% and EcoPro -7.54%, all plunging together. CATL dropped more than 12% the previous day and is down more than 50% from its May high.

Not one of the KOSDAQ's top 20 stocks by market cap was up intraday. Leading battery names and chip equipment stocks such as PSK Holdings, HPSP and Wonik IPS fell 4.6–6.3%, and at the close Wonik IPS was down -7.92% and Jusung Engineering -8.93%.

The exchange rate fell 1.0 won to 1,324.2 won, a new lowest close for the year. That is 14.9% below the year high of 1,555.8 won and 122.5 won below July 29 (1,446.7 won).

With the KOSPI down nearly 40% from its June high, a ruling party lawmaker called for early activation of a market stabilization fund. The deputy prime minister said the government is ready to take market stabilization measures if needed but has not decided to activate the fund. Critics noted that a fund the size of 2020's (KRW 10.76 trillion, 0.7% of market cap at the time) would have limited impact, while analysis also showed past mentions of stabilization funds and short-selling bans came near index bottoms.

The argument rests on KB Securities' outlook for up to KRW 600 trillion in Samsung Electronics shareholder returns over three years and supply constraints that have pushed DDR5 lead times to as long as 52 weeks due to HBM demand. Prices went the other way, however. Samsung Electronics fell -4.03%, SK hynix -5.49% and SMH -5.99%, showing a gap between fundamental optimism and flow-driven selling. MU mentions rose from 204 to 236, so interest remains.

The evidence is CoreWeave's 2032 bonds yielding about 15% and the shift from AI corporate bonds into Treasuries. Market data points the same way. Treasuries and investment-grade credit rose, with TLT +1.87% and LQD +1.03% (2 days), while HYG gained only +0.35% (2 days). But on 10/22 Meta's CDS hit a record high, so the premise that "the big ones are safe" has also begun to wobble.

The basis is US margin debt of $1.48 trillion (near a record) and BofA client cash allocations at a low of 10%. The same day, 24-hour crypto liquidations rose to $431 million (+52%), and in Korea margin-call liquidations were cited as a condition for a bottom. The forced-liquidation path the community warned about is partially showing up in prices.

A leak of cancer vaccine data (42% reduction in recurrence and death risk) pushed shares from $250 to $190, and trading was halted. Mentions jumped from 28 to 137, and the overreaction view prevails. It is the same pattern as the day's broader market, where stocks like Meta with good numbers but even higher expectations were sold.

Binance stablecoin reserves fell to $41.6 billion, a 1-year low, and cases of frozen accounts continued. BTC mentions plunged from 68 to 24. Price (BTC -3.28%) and sentiment cooled together.

Daily thread on a sell-off day. Loss posts and SPY put rotation were common.

Top comment consensus: Self-deprecation dominated, with lines like "lucky if you didn't get liquidated" and "lifetime return 0%." A minority argued the storage business is still strong, citing WDC earnings (adjusted EPS $4.64 vs. $4.07 expected, revenue guidance of $4.38 billion above estimates). A comment along the lines of "our Korean bros are in trouble" also raised concern about Korean memory stocks falling in tandem.

Shares plunged after data leaked ahead of the ESMO presentation.

Top comment consensus: Rebuttals that "42% is a huge number" were overwhelming. Most comments either recommended buying, citing cancer patients' experience that it will become the standard of care, or interpreted the move as profit-taking amid broad market weakness.

Anthropic's public S-1 filing is imminent, possibly the largest IPO in history.

Top comment consensus: Opinion is split between skepticism that "private investors want an exit" and optimism that "the AI train won't stop." Many pointed to a valuation bubble, comparing it with SpaceX (revenue of $14.57 billion, EPS of $0.35, market cap above $2 trillion).

Margin debt near a record high, cash allocations at a low.

Top comment consensus: Alongside a post about Norway's sovereign wealth fund losing $30 billion on bonds, most said "it's just a 1%-range paper loss out of $2.3 trillion," while a minority believes "the narrative has turned entirely bearish."

Discussion on preparing for a financial-crisis-level decline.

Top comment consensus: "Keep dollar-cost averaging into global ETFs" was the mainstream view, while a minority stressed a cash buffer, citing the risk of forced liquidation after job loss.

The Trump administration announces a crackdown on crypto fraud.

Top comment consensus: Most comments expressed concern about tighter regulation, reduced privacy and mandatory DEX KYC, along with cynicism about Trump's crypto businesses. A minority pushed back with "did you forget the pump at the inauguration?"

Meta beat expectations on Q3 results and Q4 guidance but fell about 7% intraday, on track for its biggest drop since July, and the Nasdaq 100 slid as much as -2.4% intraday. Despite ad revenue of more than $63 billion and ad prices up about 14%, annual capex of $135–145 billion and a record 5-year CDS weighed on the stock. The new non-voting Class C shares serve both to fund Zuckerberg's taxes and to finance capex and acquisitions, and Janus Henderson's Allison Porter said they will be an overhang until actual capital raising occurs. She expects hyperscaler free cash flow to rebound in the second half of 2027 to 2028.

The "Your next move" panel cited the absence of 2027 capex guidance, negative free cash flow next year, and expense growth outpacing revenue growth as reasons for Meta's weakness. Language in Meta's filing that "the financing environment has become increasingly challenging" fueled the capital scarcity debate. In contrast, Jensen Huang at GTC Berlin said neocloud demand is overflowing and all that is missing is working capital, and he also rejected a 2029 memory oversupply scenario raised by Korean business media. Panikoff of the Atlantic Council sees a resumption of conflict with Iran within weeks after the midterms as his base case.

The 8:30 noted that Tesla posted about $1.5 billion in positive free cash flow (vs. an expected $4.9 billion burn), but quarterly capex was only about $4.7 billion (vs. $7.9 billion expected), and asked whether it is missing out on AI spending. Optimus shipments to enterprise customers have been pushed to the end of next year. P&G's CFO said US consumers are remarkably resilient, citing +4% organic sales and higher US volumes. Scott Melker interpreted bitcoin volatility at a 2.5-year low, despite Japan's slump, French yields at 5% and CCC junk yields at 17.66%, as evidence of decorrelation.

Ben Harwood views the capex cut as a matter of execution timing and expects spending to rise again in 2027–2028. He kept his $600 price target, noting that 75% of new US cars are sold with FSD and 75% buy it after the free trial.

On Closing Bell, CEO Lee Kwon-hee said stocks are falling 3–4% at a time even without trillion-won selling because no one is there to support them, and he pointed to the NYT report on US-Israeli preparations for post-election strikes on Iran as the trigger. Center head Kim Jang-yeol calculated that if DRAM prices fell 90% within a year and a half, Samsung Electronics could drop to KRW 100,000 and the KOSPI to 3,500, but concluded there is no reason to flee if that probability is below 30%. Team leader Hwang Yoo-hyun said the price correction is over and a time correction remains, urging viewers to look for the next market leaders, while CEO Park Byung-chang diagnosed a "listless market" with turnover down six days in a row and advised buying in tranches only on sharp drops until the week after the election.

Meritz Securities team leader Yoon Yeo-sam said hyperscaler cash already turned negative in this earnings season and that off-balance-sheet liabilities could grow to $5 trillion by the first half of next year. He said B-rated spreads above 400bp or a further widening of Oracle CDS (290bp) would signal credit contagion. He described the BOK's decision as a hawkish hold and presented a November hike with a 3.5% terminal rate as the house view. On the same day, CEO Kim Min-soo expected a bullish candle in Korea the next day, citing capitulation signals as even optimists turned pessimistic.

Commentator Kim Dong-wook noted that 85% of roughly KRW 160 trillion in net foreign selling this year has been concentrated in Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, SK Square and Samsung Electro-Mechanics. As alternatives, he suggested oversold earnings names (LG Electronics, Samsung SDS) and K-beauty ODMs whose growth has not been impaired by won strength. Yeouido Tube reported Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport and oil facilities, the US departure order, and a surge of more than 50% in private jet costs for the wealthy.

Instructor Kim Ji-young said earnings are fine but pension funds, retail and foreign investors all lack buying capacity, while arguing that a further plunge is unlikely given Samsung Electronics' and SK hynix's P/E of 4–5x. She also noted that off-balance-sheet commitments at nine Big Tech companies total about $3 trillion according to a WSJ tally. In her midterm commentary, she said tighter AI regulation is almost the only point of agreement shared by left and right.

Footage from a protest rally and public hearing in front of San Jose City Hall. Eleven new data centers are under discussion, and Prologis's 99MW facility will house 44 diesel backup generators. 73% of California voters opposed them, and San Francisco signed a 45-day construction moratorium bill. This matches a CNBC poll (63% oppose a data center near their home).