On Oct. 28 it held the policy rate at 3.75-4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack argued for a 25bp hike. Chair Warsh did not commit to action in December, but markets lean toward a hike.

It held its policy rate at 2.5% in October (after a 25bp hike in September). With eurozone CPI rising to 4.0%, markets price a probability of more than 72% for another hike in December.

It raised rates for the first time in more than three years. The size of the hike and the gilt market reaction could not be confirmed.

It held its rate at 3.00% on Oct. 22 (after a hike on July 16). The next Monetary Policy Board meeting is on Nov. 26. Foreign investor outflows and a weaker won (USD/KRW 1,356.07, +0.98%) are a burden.

The Nasdaq fell about 5.4%, the S&P 500 about 4.3% and the Dow 1,844 points (3.7%), making it the worst day for all three indexes since April 2025. The semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped 10-11%, and the VIX rose as high as 28.09 intraday. The cause was reported as concern over slower data center expansion and tighter regulation after Democrats took control of Congress (weak guidance reports landed the same day, so causation is hard to pin down).

Democrats won both chambers of Congress and governors' races. Many observers expect limited change because much economic and foreign policy runs through executive orders. Goldman Sachs sees Democrats possibly demanding limits on the Iran war and tariff relief in debt ceiling negotiations. Q3 GDP is 3.4%, September CPI is 3.7%, and the national debt is $40.5 trillion.

The October eurozone CPI flash estimate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%, the highest in three years. Energy prices, up 20.8%, led the rise. Markets price a probability of more than 72% for an ECB hike in December, and the euro rose 0.6% against the dollar right after the release.

The BoE raised its policy rate for the first time in more than three years, against a backdrop of inflation pressure. On 11-05 the FTSE 100 fell -0.43% and USD/GBP stood at 0.7437 (-0.10%). Details such as the size of the hike could not be confirmed.

The 10-year yield fell more than 5bp to 4.839%, the 2-year fell more than 11bp to 4.466%, and the 30-year stood at 5.26%. The tech sell-off boosted demand for safe assets. The consensus for October nonfarm payrolls is +59,000, and September was +29,000.

Intraday, AMD fell about 14%, Micron about 13%, Arm 12%, Qualcomm 11% (earnings beat but weak guidance), Tesla 11%, and Nvidia and Broadcom about 7% each. AppLovin rose 26% on strong Q3 results and EPAM 22% on raised guidance.

On Nov. 4, Brent plunged 8.7% to $94.62 and WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12, both the lowest since Aug. 31. On the 5th they rebounded to the high $90s for Brent and the low $90s for WTI. Eurasia Group put the probability of a deal with Iran at 10% and of renewed U.S. strikes at 60%.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000, down about 5.5% over 24 hours, and Ethereum, Solana and XRP also dropped 6-7%. Coinbase and Circle fell 10-15% and Strategy fell 9.6%, while more than $1 billion in derivatives positions were liquidated.

Profit doubled year over year to about $4 billion, and the dividend was raised. High oil prices are the backdrop, but the energy sector (XLE) fell -2.90% the same day, buried by the broad decline.

The KOSPI closed at 5,383.80 (-300.00 points, -5.28%), below 5,400 for the first time since April 3, and a sell-side sidecar was triggered intraday. The KOSDAQ also triggered a sidecar, closing at 678.41 (-5.11%). Samsung Electronics fell -7.57% (to 201,500 won) and SK Hynix -9.46% (to 1,264,000 won).

Foreign investors net sold 3.4142 trillion won of KOSPI shares, while individuals net bought 2.2784 trillion won and institutions 856.1 billion won. Money Today reported the same day's net selling at 3.8 trillion won and the five-session cumulative total at about 10.3 trillion won, so the tallies use different bases.

Weakness in chip stocks after the midterms sent the KOSPI down more than 5%. About 192.9 trillion won in market cap vanished in one day from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Semiconductor and power equipment stocks plunged on expectations that Democratic control of Congress could lead to tighter data center regulation.

As of 10 a.m., LIG Nex1 was -7.85%, Hanwha Systems -7.53%, Hanwha Aerospace -4.08% and Hyundai Rotem -3.63%. Hopes for an end to the Iran war combined with defense budget worries from the change of power in the U.S. Congress. The 3x defense ETF (DFEN) fell -12.23%.

Inflation slowed for a second straight month, following 3.1% in August and 2.9% in September. Petroleum products rose 14.9%, and the government estimates the price cap lowered inflation by 0.8 percentage points. The year-to-date figure of 2.7% exceeds the government's full-year forecast of 2.6%.

The September current account surplus was a record $61.46 billion. Goods exports were $130.72 billion. Rising semiconductor prices drove the result, and there are concerns that the concentration creates an illusion of strength.

This is a minority view that regulatory fear is an overreaction. The logic is that even with both chambers, Democrats would struggle to override a veto, but with the Nasdaq 100 down 5.7% the same day, most of the market did not buy the argument.

This reading goes beyond the regulatory issue to worry about the growth structure's dependence on AI capex itself. If Q3 GDP of 3.4% leaned on AI investment, a slowdown in that investment spreads into a growth slowdown.

Since late September, Intel is down 52% (forward P/E 42x), SanDisk 40% (4x), Marvell 40% (28x) and Micron 25% (4.5x). The debate is whether the low P/Es reflect peak earnings. On r/investing, by contrast, commenters raised the possibility of an oversold market, citing a SanDisk P/E of 7 versus Walmart's 47.

The jump in mentions of the 3x leveraged ETF (SOXL) from 367th to 7th supports this. The argument is that a bottom forms only after leverage liquidation ends.

Repeated suicide prevention hotline posts signaled extreme fear. A contrarian joke that "hotline posts mean the bottom" circulates, but the evidence is too thin to use as an indicator.

A shared article on the chip stock collapse and the worst post-midterm day.

A post reporting the Nasdaq 100 down 5.7%, the Nasdaq down 5% and the S&P 500 lower.

A post asking whether "the AI trade is breaking" amid plunges in AI infrastructure names such as Nebius -18%, Micron -16% and AMD -16%.

A post asking what caused the plunge.

A post saying Trump Media moved 4,259 BTC to an exchange, sparking suspicion of a sale.

Bitcoin fell only modestly despite the midterms and the roughly $6.3 billion Binance hack. On election day (11/3) it slid to the mid-$75,000s before rebounding above $81,000 in about 12 hours. The rebound, however, was more of a short squeeze than new spot demand (about $950 million liquidated). Leverage is also overheated (open interest at its highest since September, annualized funding rate of about 11%). The host says daily and weekly closes and ETF net inflows need to be checked.

She says the election reduced uncertainty and that the housing market has historically risen after elections. New York's high-end housing rose 14% in Q3, and expectations of about $90 billion in Wall Street profits this year and $50-60 billion in bonuses support demand. The high-end market has a high share of cash buyers and is less sensitive to interest rates, but the broader market has structural problems of tight supply and housing cost burdens. Compass's private listings are under subcommittee investigation over monopoly concerns, and oversight is expected to strengthen after the election.

A sports business interview. He said private equity has a defined investment horizon, which suits cash purposes better than adding value, and that the team's value has gone from about $325 million 15 years ago to $13 billion. The host raised the game integrity problem of sports betting and prediction markets as a risk, but the owner did not respond.

CNBC's midday broadcast carries "stocks tumble on AI worries" in its title, and the Raymond James CIO interview carries the gist "I don't think it's over when it comes to AI." Conversely, the Yahoo Finance interview with the AMD CEO is titled "AI demand is coming faster than expected." No transcripts were available, so the content of the remarks could not be confirmed.