They say Anthropic's revenue has grown a lot, so why do AI stocks keep falling? Is it true that growth has slowed?

Even with revenue growing, the issue is how long it keeps growing and who pays the cost

In the report's item on Anthropic's amended S-1, Q3 revenue is about $17 billion. January–September revenue is $33.24 billion, and purchase commitments and leases are about $895.4 billion. The growth rate slowed from 132% in Q1 and 144% in Q2 to about 47% in Q3. It is natural that such high growth rates can't continue, but the market is reading this slowdown together with the size of the commitments.

The asymmetry between slowing growth and commitments

While the pace of revenue growth slows, the commitments stay fixed. The S-1 itself states that growth could slow faster than expected and that the growth rate is expected to decline over time (SEC S-1). Morningstar's Malik Ahmed Khan sees the key risk as the sustainability of growth, saying that if revenue can't carry the commitments, it could turn into operating losses. The size of the commitments differs by source. One analysis puts fixed compute commitments at $265.6 billion, another at $637 billion. The difference comes from different contract definitions, so it is hard to settle on and cite a single figure. The report's $895.4 billion includes leases.

Both optimism and pessimism have grounds

Franklin Templeton's Max Gokhman assessed that this filing increased greed more than fear (Advisor Perspectives, 2026-10-27). Conversely, another investment chief at the same outlet warns not to overlook the risks. On the CNBC broadcast the report cited, the Anthropic IPO was also named as a key indicator for the period when the market swings. In the end, whether AI demand exists has already been proven, and the issue is whether that demand lasts long enough to justify the expensive investment.

The stocks falling are the borrowers

In the report, Oracle filed to issue $10 billion each of common stock and senior notes, $20 billion in total, and its stock fell as much as 8%. The same day, the corporate bond ETFs HYG and LQD were -0.65% and -0.52%. Cash-rich companies hold up, but AI infrastructure companies dependent on outside funding see higher financing costs reflected immediately in their share prices. A successful Anthropic IPO would signal that the funding window is open, and a weak one would signal the opposite.

What investors should do

• Split AI stocks into cash-rich companies and those dependent on outside financing. Even under the same AI theme, the former is more defensive.
• Check the reception at the Anthropic IPO roadshow together with the moves in HYG and LQD. When credit weakens first, equities often follow.
• Q3 growth of 47% is a slowdown, not a decline. Concluding that all of AI should be sold on one slowdown has weak grounds.

The figures come from the report and published S-1 analyses, and because commitment and margin estimates vary by source, it is safest to treat them as directional only.

Sources: SEC S-1 filing, Morningstar, Advisor Perspectives (2026-10-27), Tomasz Tunguz.