I hear bitcoin has fallen below the average purchase price of US ETF investors. Why does that matter? I hold a bitcoin ETF and I'm worried it will fall further.
2026-10-24
Why the average purchase price becomes a 'line'
Spot bitcoin ETFs have been the largest new buyers of bitcoin since 2024. That makes the average purchase price across all ETF investors the thickest 'breakeven line' in the market. When the price is above this line, most ETF holders are in profit and sit tight; when it falls below, most of them flip into losses. This shift affects prices through three channels.
- Stop-loss pressure: Some investors who have slipped into losses redeem. With spot ETFs, redemptions force issuers to sell actual bitcoin, so investor sentiment translates directly into spot selling
- Breakeven supply overhead: If the price rises again, supply from holders who will "sell once I'm back to even" stacks up above. The resistance near $87,700 mentioned in the report is of this nature
- Signaling effect: Because institutional desks and traders watch the same indicator, the breach itself serves as a signal for further selling
The number, however, varies widely depending on how it is measured. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode calculates it by accumulating only days with net inflows, and outflow days do not change the average (Glassnode methodology). By this method it is about $81,500, and through mid-October the price bounced off this line twice (AlphaMaven, 2026-10-13). CoinDesk, by contrast, puts it at $82,313, and Galaxy Research has previously estimated $87,830 by backing it out from holdings. The key point is that the current price of $81,221 is "near or below breakeven by any calculation."
It has fallen below this line before
This is not the first time. The same indicator has been tested repeatedly, and each time the outcome was not an 'immediate collapse' but a 'long war of attrition.'
| Period | Estimated average purchase price at the time | What followed |
|---|---|---|
| November 2025 | About $89,600 | Most investors moved into losses |
| February 2026 | About $83,000 | Unrealized losses persisted for 25 consecutive trading days |
| October 2026 | About $81,500 | Retesting after holding twice |
(Source: MEXC news compilation, AlphaMaven 2026-10-13)
What stands out is that the average purchase price itself has kept falling. As investors who bought at the top exit and new buying comes in at lower prices, the average drops. In February, the price held below the average for over a month. In other words, this line is less a cliff where 'it's over once it breaks' and more a 'zone that tests the patience of investors in the red.'
Why now is less favorable than February
This time bitcoin is not moving independently. On 10/22, when the Nasdaq fell -2.6%, BTC dropped -3.28%. That means bitcoin is tied to the same 'risk-asset basket' as AI and tech stocks. If next week's Big Tech earnings and the FOMC rattle tech stocks, bitcoin is likely to move in the same direction.
Also, in early October bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million in a week, ending a three-week streak of net inflows (SoSoValue, for 2026-10-05 to 10-09). The breakeven line is being retested without any change in fund flows.
The next support level analysts cite is $77,500. Glassnode's market mean price (an indicator close to the average cost of all holders) is also near here (AlphaMaven, 2026-10-13). ETF investors' breakeven line and the whole market's average cost sit only about 5% apart.
So what should investors do
- Holders: There is little reason to dump right away below $81,500. Past episodes held for weeks even below the average. Instead, it is better to set a close below $77,500 as your stop-loss. If that line also breaks, both ETF investors and the market as a whole fall into losses at once, compounding selling pressure
- Prospective buyers: There is no need to rush. First check whether daily ETF flows turn to net inflows for three or more days, and until then build a small position in installments
- Portfolio view: With bitcoin moving in tandem with the Nasdaq, it offers almost no diversification for investors heavy in tech. Holding both a semiconductor ETF and a bitcoin ETF effectively means taking the same risk twice
- Next week's check: See whether bitcoin falls less than the Nasdaq on the day after Big Tech earnings on 10/29. Falling less points to bottoming; falling more raises the odds of a retest of $77,500