According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a hold at the 10/27-28 FOMC is 89.5%, while a December hike is priced at about 21.8bp, or roughly 78% probability. September CPI of 3.7% and inflation expectations rising to 3.5% argue for a hike, while September payrolls of +29,000 and sentiment of 48.0 sit on the other side. The 10/22 Treasury rally was driven by fears of slowing growth, and the 10/23 reversal by oil-driven inflation fears. If the Fed strongly signals a December hike, it could clash with slowing growth and deepen weakness in cyclicals.

The eurozone October composite PMI fell to a 4-month low of 51.9, TTF gas hit its highest since 2022, and the French 10-year yield reached an intraday 5.126% on 10/22, the highest since 2002. IEA Executive Director Birol warned that Europe is entering winter with record-low gas reserves. With inflation and slowing growth arriving together, ECB signals may be mixed. EUR/USD showed a muted reaction at 1.1196 (-0.35%).

It was the first hold after consecutive hikes in July and August, and the bank said growth and inflation would be higher than its August forecast. Morgan Stanley called it a "hawkish hold," expecting hikes to 3.25% in November and 3.5% in Q1 2027, and assigned a higher likelihood to a terminal rate of 3.75%. At a parliamentary audit, Governor Shin Hyun-song agreed that a return to the ultra-low-rate era is unlikely and said the won is undervalued with room for further appreciation. The next policy meeting is November 26.

On October 23, the Dow fell 1.24% to 52,215 and the S&P 500 0.54% to 7,622, while the Nasdaq 100 was flat at 28,958. Only energy (+2.51%) rose, while consumer staples (-1.83%) and consumer discretionary (-1.39%) led losses. Yields rose with the 2-year at 4.684% and the 10-year at 4.990%, the priced-in December hike widened to about 21.8bp, and gold dipped below $4,000 to an intraday $3,976.

On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.2%, leaving the Nasdaq about 5.8% below its 10/6 high. Meta fell about -7%, Amazon -4.6%, Nvidia -4.4% and Intel and AMD about -8%, while only Apple rose +1.2%. In Asia on the 23rd, the KOSPI plunged 3.5% intraday before closing up 0.3%.

Meta's revenue rose 26% year-on-year, but it raised the low end of its capex guidance from $130 billion to $135 billion (high end unchanged at $145 billion). Shares briefly rose 6% after hours, then fell nearly 7% in the regular session on a net income miss and the burden of higher investment. Muse, the AI agent launched in September, still contributes little to revenue.

Brent settled up $3.55 at $116.72 and WTI up $3.80 at $103.27. With no progress in US-Iran talks and continuing attacks on ships in Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, President Trump mentioned the possibility of further operations. The US Department of Energy approved an emergency SPR exchange of up to 400,000 barrels for a Phillips 66 refinery. However, the Brent front-month (BZ=F) in price data was $111.80 (-1.21%), diverging from the report.

Brent futures hit a 5-month high of $114 this week, but Iraq's Basrah Medium sold at a $10 discount to Dubai. Kpler estimates Middle East crude exports last week at about 24 million barrels per day, above prewar levels (23.3 million), with 40% of Persian Gulf crude bypassing Hormuz. Meanwhile, 6 million barrels per day of Gulf refining capacity remains offline, leaving refined product exports at less than half of prewar levels.

Dutch TTF front-month rose about 3% shortly after the open to EUR 92.30 per MWh, the highest since December 2022. EU gas storage stands at 74.62%, more than 10pp below the 5-year average (about 86%), and gas prices have risen about 140% since February. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that Europe is entering winter with record-low reserves.

October consumer sentiment came in at 48.0, below September (48.1) and the second-lowest on record after May (44.8). Five-year inflation expectations kept rising to 3.5% from 3.2% in March, and the latest CPI is 3.7%. CME FedWatch puts the probability of a hold at the 10/27-28 FOMC at 89.5%.

Bitcoin slid to about $81,000 on the night of the 22nd, then traded in a narrow range near $81,500 on the 23rd. It sits below the average purchase cost of US spot ETFs ($82,313), and on the 22nd spot ETFs saw outflows of $635 million, the largest since June 25. It remains about 39% above the July 1 low (about $59,000).

According to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data, hedge funds' net selling of information technology this week was the largest since September 2024. AI-related stocks are down 23% from their June highs, and OpenAI has lowered its valuation target to $1.25 trillion as it seeks to raise up to $30 billion.

The KOSPI gapped down to open at 5,403.17 (-2.36%) and slid as low as 5,305.98 intraday before closing at 5,550.30 (+0.30%). Institutions' net buying of KRW 872.2 billion absorbed foreign investors' net selling of KRW 992.8 billion. The KOSDAQ fell to 751.69 (-1.62%) on weakness in EcoPro (-5.83%), EcoPro BM (-5.5%) and Leeno Industrial (-4.05%).

Foreign investors net bought about KRW 580 billion in the prior week (10/16-22), mainly through KOSPI 200 ETFs, then net sold KRW 978.2 billion on the 23rd. The overnight plunge in US tech stocks triggered the selling. Samsung Securities said concerns about peak AI investment and post-midterm regulation are overblown.

SK hynix halted its review of a Nasdaq IPO and pre-IPO for its US second-tier subsidiary Solidigm. Criticism of a five-layer duplicate listing structure and the government's regulatory stance were behind the move; its shares rose 4.42% to KRW 1,277,000 and SK Square gained +3.2%. TrendForce expects Q4 NAND contract prices to rise 15-20%, but the company must now rework funding for capacity expansion through internal cash, borrowing and corporate bonds.

Morgan Stanley assessed the BOK's 10/22 hold at 3.00% as hawkish, forecasting hikes to 3.25% in November and 3.5% in Q1 2027. It assigned a higher likelihood to a terminal rate of 3.75%. At a parliamentary audit, Governor Shin Hyun-song forecast growth in the 3% range for both this year and next.

The delinquency rate on won-denominated loans at domestic banks rose 0.06pp month-on-month to 0.69% at the end of August, the highest in about 10 years. The delinquency rate for sole proprietors was 0.86%, the highest in 13 years and 3 months. The Financial Supervisory Service said it remains manageable as it is below the pre-COVID long-term average (0.78%).

The government unveiled 13 improvement tasks to pursue industrial complex permits, compensation and design for semiconductor megaprojects simultaneously and to cut bonded-zone procedures and overlapping regulations. A specific plan for exempting key R&D staff from the 52-hour workweek will be drawn up after labor-management consultation. On the same day, the US Treasury released proposed implementing rules for restrictions on investment in China in AI, advanced semiconductors and biotechnology.

With rising odds of Democrats taking the Senate in the November 3 US midterm elections, sector-level effects are being discussed. Analysts say a Democratic advantage favors power equipment, renewables and biotech, while continued Republican control favors defense and nuclear power. Tighter regulation of AI data center power was cited as a burden for semiconductor and AI stocks.

The post questions why cash-rich Meta is being sold while neoclouds building the same infrastructure with debt were sold less. Market data already points this way. CoreWeave's 2031 bonds yield about 15.5%, and its shares fell about -25% in the week of 10/14-20. In mention rankings, $NBIS fell from 122 to 69 mentions, but questions about shorting it keep coming. The takeaway is that the more credit-burdened an AI infrastructure name, the greater its downside.

The author argues that AI usage (OpenRouter tokens) is up 93x since early 2025 while cloud spending is up 3x, so the overspending argument is exaggerated. In practice, Meta fell about -7% despite revenue up +26%, and Lam Research dropped -10% intraday despite record revenue of $8.22 billion. Still, on 10/23 the selloff paused with SMH +0.74% and XLK +0.52%, giving the community's overreaction thesis a little support from the market.

This was a rebuttal to a post noting that AMAT, KLAC and LRCX are down more than 50% from 52-week highs and ASML about 22%. SMH fell about 17% from 632.50 on 10/6 to 523.35 on 10/22 before rebounding slightly to 527.20 on 10/23. The oversold-bounce thesis is supported by the numbers, but questions remain about the durability of a rebound until Lam Research confirms a shipment recovery in the March quarter.

This is the long-term DCA camp's rebuttal. However, it diverges from market data. The S&P 500's 5-day decline was a small -0.47%, but the Nasdaq is down about 6% from its 10/6 high, SMH about 17%, and the KOSPI about 21% from the 7,000 level in early October. Steep declines in tech, semis and Korea are hidden behind the index average, so "2%" differs from what investors feel.

BTC at $81,221.34 sits just below this support. A news aggregator (CoinDesk) puts the ETF average purchase cost at $82,313, judging it already breached. This is consistent with the $635 million spot ETF outflow on 10/22, and analysts say breakeven selling awaits near $87,700 overhead.

Weekend discussion thread. Many mentions of losses on $GOOGL, $META and $SPY.

Top comment consensus: dominated by loss confessions and resignation ("worst week of my life thanks to Google," "started at +55k, ended at +6k"). There were also complaints that individual stocks have far greater downside volatility than the index.

Next week's earnings schedule, including $RDDT, $GOOGL and $MSFT.

Top comment consensus: binary tension that Big Tech earnings will push the market either +3% or into collapse, with hopes that "Sundar and Satya need to deliver."

Report that SpaceX is negotiating to acquire or lease 80,000 US cell sites. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile plunged, while tower REITs surged.

Top comment consensus: concern over Musk's expanding influence is mainstream. Some warn against hype, noting these are lease talks rather than an acquisition and that building a national network would take years and tens of billions of dollars.

American Express is cutting 5% of its workforce, citing preparation for AI.

Top comment consensus: overwhelming cynicism that AI is the perfect excuse for cost cutting.

AMAT, KLAC and LRCX down more than -50% from 52-week highs, ASML about -22%.

Top comment consensus: the first replies pushed back that they are still up year-to-date and over 1 and 5 years, alongside an oversold-bounce thesis citing prices 20% below the 200-day line and warnings that loss psychology makes them hard to hold.

An analysis arguing for a rebound setup after forced liquidations. $SPY, $QQQ, $SOXX.

Top comment consensus: split between long-term DCA investors and cautious voices. The post's claim that "the AI thesis is intact" drew many rebuttals, and some said "ten days to the midterms, capital preservation comes first."

The McRib's return (10/27) and the bitcoin rally meme.

Top comment consensus: mostly jokes, mixed with cynicism that the global economy is a mess while only bitcoin goes up.

The KOSPI slid as low as 5,305 intraday before closing +0.3% at 5,550, while the KOSDAQ closed -1.62% at 751. With 101 advancers and 720 decliners, market quality was poor. Curator Park Myung-seok said CoreWeave's chart has moved almost in lockstep with the KOSPI and Samsung Electronics since its July 29 low, arguing that in the near term CoreWeave's bottom and the direction of rates will determine the KOSPI's bottom. He said hyperscaler competition has shifted from "buying lots of chips" to token efficiency, pushing semis down the priority list, and suggested holding biotech (Samsung Biologics, Celltrion) and construction as a hedge of around 20%. Center head Kim Jang-yeol said Meta's negative FCF was expected and that next week Big Tech's backlog growth rate is key.

Analyst Vincent said the "abnormal phase" in which earnings fail to explain stock prices will eventually normalize. He sees SK hynix's Q3 operating profit in the high KRW 70 trillions, possibly as much as KRW 80 trillion, and said the consensus range is wide at KRW 40-80 trillion due to won strength. He judged that inventory relative to sales is at a bottom, so this is not the cycle peak. Foreign investors have been net sellers for 10 straight weeks since the third week of August, and he expects them to return to large caps once uncertainty from the FOMC and the midterms clears.

Director Cha Young-joo noted that the index rose even as foreigners sold, putting the odds at 7 to 3 that the 5,500 close holds and next week's lows move higher. He said credit balances fell from KRW 34 trillion to KRW 30 trillion, meaning urgent selling has been absorbed. CEO Yoo Chang-hee attributed Meta's decline to the question shifting from "can it make money" to "can it pay the interest," and said the KOSPI could fill the gap to 6,300-6,400 if earnings are interpreted favorably. He countered dot-com bubble comparisons with forward P/E figures.

Director Yeom Seung-hwan said 5,500 might have broken without the Solidigm disclosure. He named investor deposits of KRW 89.6 trillion as the most worrying indicator. Deposits falling even as individuals sold stocks means money has left the market, with retail funds moving into US stocks and domestic bonds. He said global money has moved out of semis, data centers and power infrastructure into defensives such as Apple, Coca-Cola and P&G, and singled out CoreWeave's unsecured bond yield (8%→15%) as the weak link in AI credit. He said the KOSPI's forward P/E is lower than during the global financial crisis.

Foreign investors sold cash equities but were net buyers of futures for a second day, and SK hynix ranked first and Samsung Biologics fourth in institutional net buying. On the buy side, CEO Lee Jung-ho said Q3 revenue of about KRW 98 trillion and operating profit of KRW 76-77 trillion are expected to be record highs, and that a P/B of about 1.1x on next year's basis is near a historical low. The wait-and-see side said there is no supporting demand, so support in the mid-to-high KRW 1.1 million to low-to-mid KRW 1.2 million range needs to be confirmed. Yeouido Tube on the same channel reported that Russia is considering re-allowing parallel imports of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix memory.

Lam Research beat expectations with September-quarter revenue of $8.22 billion (+54% year-on-year) and adjusted EPS of $2.20, but plunged 10% intraday. Its December-quarter guidance midpoint of $8.6 billion was in line with consensus but fell short of expectations above $9 billion, and about 75% of the revenue increase came from China, raising China's share from 26% to 35%. BofA cut its price target from $385 to $345 and Needham from $390 to $290, both maintaining buy ratings.

The discussion started from a diagnosis of a growth-scare mood with UMich sentiment at 48, VIX at 20 and surging oil. Stephanie Link said pessimism is overdone, citing earnings up +38% with 25% of S&P 500 companies reported, retail sales ex-gasoline up +5.1% and the equal-weight S&P nearly +2% for the week, while the host countered that strength in staples, healthcare and utilities is "defense in disguise." The Goldman desk advised holding off on aggressive moves given heavy overhang next week, while the bullish side cited an Anthropic IPO and the close of an OpenAI round as catalysts. In the same channel's All-America survey, 63% opposed a data center near their home.

OpenAI lowered the target valuation for its roughly $30 billion round by $150 billion, from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion, and an IPO is next year at the earliest. Anthropic's latest private valuation of $965 billion surpassed OpenAI's ($852 billion), and a November IPO is being discussed. Mizuho's Jordan Klein said stocks are trading on mood rather than fundamentals, and global corporate bond spreads widened the most since May 2025. The Nasdaq 100 posted its first two consecutive weekly declines since July.

Jared Carmel of Manhattan Venture Partners said Anthropic's S-1 is imminent and that it should be priced at $1.3-1.5 trillion for long-term shareholders. He cited the shift of token spending from foundation models to open-weight models as a 24-month risk. In contrast, AI skeptic Ed Zitron warned that Anthropic's $413 billion in non-cancelable commitments do not match its disclosed spending, calling AI labs "loadbearing companies" that prop up cloud growth at MS, Google and Amazon. On SpaceX's push to access 80,000 cell sites, Crown Castle rose while the three carriers fell.