The Fed raised rates by 25bp on Sept. 16, putting the policy rate at 3.75-4.00%. A hold is the base case for Oct. 28, but the CPI beat and oil prices leave room for another hike. The market is watching whether the FOMC statement signals further tightening.

Commerzbank expects the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct. 29, raise it once more to 2.75% in December and then enter a plateau. Eurozone inflation was 3.2% in August, and energy inflation stemming from the Iran conflict is a risk factor. Current rate figures differ by source and need to be verified.

On Oct. 22, the BOK held its base rate at 3.00% with all seven board members in favor. It is taking a breather after 25bp hikes in both July and August. The won strengthening to the KRW 1,320s supported the hold, and the market is talking about the possibility of another hike in November.

The policy rate stands at 1.25% after the September hike. A hold is expected at this meeting, and with September inflation at 2.1%, a December hike remains possible.

The Dow fell about -1.2%, the S&P 500 about -0.5% and the Nasdaq about -0.2%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell about 0.5% and the Nasdaq about 0.7%, while the energy sector rose 2.4% to a record high.

After Meta and Tesla earnings, AI capex burdens came into focus and the Nasdaq fell -2.60% (from 26,703 to 26,009), while the S&P 500 fell -1.21%. The next day, tech stocks steadied, with XLK +0.49% and SMH +0.74%.

Meta's Q3 revenue of $64.6 billion (+26.1%) beat expectations, and it raised the low end of its 2026 capex range from $130 billion to $135 billion (keeping the high end at $145 billion). Tesla's adjusted EPS of $0.48 topped expectations ($0.45). Reports conflict on Tesla's capex, with some saying it was lowered to about $20 billion and others saying it will double.

The FOMC meeting and Chair Warsh's press conference, along with Alphabet and Microsoft earnings, arrive on the 28th. On the 29th, the Q3 GDP advance estimate (expected annualized 3.0%), October PCE and Amazon earnings follow. Rate futures price roughly a 10% chance of another 25bp hike.

Brent jumped more than 9% intraday to its highest level since January 2025, then pulled back to trade around $114. The Revolutionary Guard claimed that seven vessels were hit or struck mines, but most of that is unconfirmed. The strait is effectively closed, and WTI is also above $100.

On a Treasury par yield basis, the 10-year yield rose about 4bp to 5.00% from 4.96% the previous day. The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged down to 7.32%.

Spot gold fell for a fourth straight session to about $4,118 an ounce. That is about 26% below the January record (about $5,595), and because peak figures differ by outlet, the decline ranges from 22% to 27%. Renewed rate hikes and Treasury yields at 20-year highs are weighing on safe-haven demand.

Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year-over-year, beating the forecast (4.4%) and Q2 (4.3%). Exports drove growth, while September retail sales rose only +1.1%. The PBOC has kept its policy rate on hold.

On reports that SpaceX is seeking to secure tens of thousands of cell sites for a fourth mobile carrier, AT&T and T-Mobile fell more than 6%, while Crown Castle rose 10%. CrowdStrike gained +8.25% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose +0.44%.

The KOSPI closed at 5,550.30 (+0.30%) and the KOSDAQ at 751.69 (-1.62%). Foreign investors net sold KRW 994.1 billion on the KOSPI, but net buying of KRW 872.3 billion by institutions and KRW 52.7 billion by retail investors provided support.

The market fell right after the open on a plunge in New York AI and chip stocks, but SK Hynix disclosed it had halted its review of a Solidigm listing and closed up +4.42% at KRW 1,277,000. Samsung Electronics dropped to KRW 203,500 (-5.13%) intraday before closing at KRW 215,500 (+0.47%).

From Oct. 1 to 23, the top 10 stocks by retail net buying averaged a return of -25%, worse than foreign investors (-11.53%) and institutions (-9.96%). Retail investors net bought about KRW 15.1851 trillion, and the KOSPI fell on nine of the 11 trading days when foreign investors were net sellers.

This week's FOMC meeting (results due at 3 a.m. Korea time on the 29th) and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Q3 earnings were cited as the market's turning points.

The expected weekly KOSPI range is 5,300-5,800. Q3 earnings and shareholder returns are upside factors, while Middle East geopolitical risk (the Israeli election on the 27th and US midterm elections on Nov. 3) is a downside factor. There are also reports that NH Investment & Securities put the range at 5,100-6,400.

The board held rates with all seven members in favor. It is taking a breather after 25bp hikes in July and August, and the timing and pace of any further hike will depend on inflation, growth and financial stability. The won strengthening to the KRW 1,320s supported the hold, and the market is talking about the possibility of another hike in November.

Samsung Biologics (+7.71%) and SK Square (+3.20%) rose, while EcoPro (-5.83%), EcoPro BM (-5.50%), Leeno Industrial (-4.05%) and Jusung Engineering (-3.64%) fell. Among industries, pharmaceuticals (+3.48%) and medical/precision instruments (+2.45%) were strong, while metals (-3.22%), chemicals (-3.04%) and machinery/equipment (-2.57%) were weak.

$SPY had 41 mentions (36 the previous day) and $QQQ 21 (26 the previous day). Coming right after the Nasdaq's -2.60% plunge on the 22nd, discussion of the overall market direction and hedging appears to have taken a bigger share than bets on individual stocks. VXN at 28.30 supports the sense of unease over the Nasdaq.

$MSFT (from 8th to 2nd, 23 mentions), $MU (from 9th to 3rd, 22 mentions) and $AMZN (from 13th to 7th) jumped. This is interpreted as both expectations and caution rising ahead of Microsoft and Amazon earnings on the 28th-29th and the memory cycle. It is also consistent with SK Hynix's +4.42% rise in Korea.

$NOW roughly tripled from 6 to 17 mentions, climbing from 31st to 6th, and $RDDT rose from 7 to 14. In contrast, $GOOG (27 to 11), $TSLA (18 to 9) and $SPCX (24 to 14) roughly halved. Attention appears to be shifting to stocks ahead of earnings events while enthusiasm for thematic stocks cools.

$SPY and $QQQ ranking first and fourth fits the Nasdaq's -2.60% (on the 22nd) and VXN of 28.30 as a defensive reaction. However, on the 23rd the Nasdaq calmed to -0.21% and XLK rose +0.49%, so it is hard to say sentiment and prices are moving in the same direction.

$MU's jump in rank (from 9th to 3rd) matches the rebound seen in SMH +0.74% and SK Hynix +4.42%. In this area, sentiment and prices line up.

$NVDA (mentions down, 14 upvotes) and $GOOG (mentions down 59%) were at the center of the 22nd's plunge, yet mentions fell. Prices were shaken, but the community has already shifted its attention to the next events (Microsoft and Amazon earnings), a divergence.

BTC fell -1.14% and ETH -1.73%, yet mentions were around one per ticker. With almost no community reaction to the decline, there is no sign of overheating.