The Fed raised rates in September to 3.75-4.00%. A hold on the 28th is likely, but CME FedWatch prices in about an 80% chance of another hike in December. The tone of the press conference, more than the hold itself, is expected to move markets.

Ahead of the decision on the 29th, the deposit rate stands at 2.50%. Energy-driven inflation pressure is the backdrop to the hike discussion.

After consecutive hikes in July and August, the policy rate is 3.00%. A hold was the majority expectation for the October 22 meeting, but the decision statement could not be confirmed. The market expects another hike to 3.25% on November 26.

The company applied for a Nasdaq listing (ticker ANT). First-half revenue was $16.2 billion and net loss $80.7 billion, with pricing targeted for mid-November. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the lead underwriters.

Brent crude fell more than 6% from Friday's high and traded just below $110. The FT reported that Iran invited officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. The US 10-year is just under 5% and the dollar index just under 102.

Brent is at $114.42 and WTI at $100.97 (Brent figures differ across sources). Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on Gulf tankers continue, with at least 28 vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in October.

The Houthis claimed to have attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, but this is unverified. Egypt voted to support Saudi defense, exposing itself to the risk of becoming a Houthi target.

CME FedWatch prices in about a 90% chance of a hold on the 28th and about 80% for another hike in December. BTC moved sideways near $80,000.

Decisions follow from the Fed on the 28th, the ECB on the 29th (deposit rate 2.50%) and the BOJ on the 30th (1.25%). The US Q3 GDP advance estimate (forecast 3.2%) and September PCE are due on the 29th.

The company announced offerings of mandatory convertible preferred stock and common stock. The $95 billion size is based on CoinDesk's live coverage, and the shares rose around 2% in premarket trading. The communication services sector XLC fell 1.57% the same day.

SpaceX raised $40 billion, mostly in callable debt, to buy GPUs. Musk predicted that more than 200 neoclouds will consolidate into a handful. Nasdaq futures are near 29,080, down from above 30,000 earlier this month.

Reports said the company is offering voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 people. Microsoft and Amazon report quarterly earnings this week.

The KOSPI closed at 5,469.47. It turned higher intraday, reaching 5,565.67, but foreign selling grew in the afternoon. Samsung Electronics -1.16% (KRW 213,000), SK Hynix -0.16% (KRW 1,275,000), Hyundai Motor -2.54%, KB Financial -3.79%.

The KOSDAQ closed at 727.21 with all top market-cap stocks lower. Daishin Securities said wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the FOMC, earnings and the midterm elections limits dip buying and sharp rebounds.

Semiconductor equipment, pharma and biotech, and battery stocks led the decline, while robotics and AI healthcare names were strong. Daishin Securities named Big Tech earnings, rather than the FOMC, as this week's key variable.

Foreign investors net sold about KRW 705.0 billion on the KOSPI. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and US Big Tech earnings are bunched into this week, followed by the FOMC and US midterm elections.

Exports for October 1-20 were a record $61.6 billion. Semiconductor exports were $27.5 billion (+222.5%), a 44.7% share, and the trade surplus was $14.5 billion. As short-period statistics, they are subject to working-day effects and possible revisions.

After consecutive hikes in July and August, the policy rate is 3.00%. The market expects another hike to 3.25% on November 26. The actual decision statement from the 22nd could not be confirmed.

Revenue grew from $1.16 billion in H1'25 to $16.3 billion in H1'26, with an 85% gross margin. Some argue that about $72 billion of the $80.7 billion loss is an accounting adjustment, but many point to a mismatch between infrastructure commitments and usage demand. The market appears to be trying to price in revenue growth and capital consumption at the same time.

The sense is that a wave of listings and share sales by large AI companies (Anthropic IPO, Meta $95B) at once makes the increase in equity supply a burden. A comment in the same thread, "Called 15 of the last 2 crashes.," shows cynicism toward crash talk, a sign that fear has not reached excess levels.

There is frustration that assessments of AI winners and losers flip every week. The question for this week's earnings is whether higher capex is read as a positive or a burden.

The mainstream reading is that the company is trimming a bloated organization (headcount grew from 140,000 in 2019 to 220,000), while some worry about a recession signal. Reactions coexist: favorable for the share price, negative for employment.

Revenue rose from $1.16 billion in H1'25 to $16.3 billion in H1'26, while compute cost as a share of revenue fell from 251% to 48%. Cash of $131.7B.

One pragmatic reading is that those close to retirement get a bonus of 8 to 39 weeks of base pay.

Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom expressed interest in buying up to $5B.

Expectations of hyperscaler capex increases and beat & raise.

The community worries about AI funding burdens, yet the same day SMH rose 2.74%, XLK 1.69% and the Nasdaq 0.82%. The gain came on the same day as Anthropic's IPO filing, but causation is unconfirmed. Bearish sentiment signals low confidence that the rebound will last.

The community discusses META weakness and a 7% drop headline is circulating. The news shows +2% in premarket, and XLC is -1.57%. The directions conflict, so price action after the close needs further watching.

Mentions of $NBIS and $CRWV surged with heavy bearish discussion, consistent with Musk's neocloud shakeout warning. The rise in $MU mentions fits expectations for Samsung and SK Hynix earnings and SMH strength.

$EWZ and $NU rankings jumped, in line with the shock of Lula's fourth term. However, the Brazil plunge comes from a single CoinDesk source, so confidence is low.