The October meeting, in Chair Warsh's first year, voted 10-2 to hold, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack arguing for a 25bp hike. The statement said "inflation remains elevated." The odds of a 12/9 hike were reported at about 85% based on futures, but Hankyung Global Market said they fell from 84% to 74%, leaving a discrepancy in the figures. A meeting overhaul (cutting rate decisions to six in 2028) was also announced, raising concerns about communication gaps during a crisis.

President Lagarde said a hike was also discussed and that holding did not mean an end to hikes, which was read as a "hawkish hold." Before the meeting, futures priced about 60% odds of an October hike. With gas storage near record lows and the French economy contracting, the December decision is a dilemma between inflation and growth.

The BOJ held in an 8-1 vote, and Governor Ueda said underlying inflation has reached 2%. The market sees about 80% odds of a December hike. From January 2027 the BOJ will raise the pace of its ETF sales to 860 billion yen a year. A sharp yen reversal from USD/JPY 157.80 could trigger carry-unwind volatility.

After back-to-back hikes in July and August, the BOK held unanimously while leaving room for further hikes. The won fell to 1,334.3 per dollar, strengthening for a second day, so FX pressure remains limited despite foreign selling. The next rate meeting is 11/26.

The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86% to 25,437.00 and the Dow lost 1.09% to 51,770.31. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, its biggest monthly decline since March 2025, while WTI rose to about $104 and gold slid to a year-to-date low.

Q4 guidance of 25 cents in EPS and $15~16 billion in revenue fell far short of consensus (43 cents, $17.1 billion), sending shares to about $65. Data center and AI revenue rose about 80% to $7.3 billion, but server supply disruptions from an explosion at its Israel fab and warnings of a prolonged PC slump weighed heavily, and three firms including BofA cut the stock to neutral.

Amazon's results missed expectations and its trailing 12-month FCF came in at -$42.4 billion, sending shares down nearly 6% in premarket trading (about -1.4% in the regular session). It became the third hyperscaler with negative FCF after Alphabet and Meta, and Reddit fell more than 20% on weak guidance.

Q3 FCF of -$9.07 billion and core search revenue of $63.35 billion (vs. $64.96 billion expected) sent shares down about 12% in a day. The same day ServiceNow fell 26%, Fortinet 21% and Caterpillar 7%, while Eli Lilly rose 6% on strong results.

SMH fell 7% and SOXX 8~9%. Qualcomm lost about 11%, Astera Labs about 12%, Lumentum more than 10%, Arista about 8%, Micron more than 5% and Nvidia about 4%, while Roblox (-20%) and Twilio (-17%) also tumbled on disappointing guidance.

The Fed held in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Cook and President Hammack arguing for a 25bp hike. The statement said inflation remains elevated, and futures priced about 85% odds of a 12/9 hike.

About $6.3 billion was stolen and about $3 billion was frozen on-chain. Circle and Tether froze more than $800 million and $1.5 billion respectively, Bitcoin fell more than 4% to about $77,000, Coinbase dropped 12% and Robinhood 8%. Binance resumed withdrawals on 10/31 and said it would cover 90% of affected assets.

The correlation between oil and Treasury yields, which had reached 80% this year, broke down in October. Microsoft's CDS hit about 55bp, a 5-year high, Oracle's neared about 300bp, and AI-related bond issuance over the next four years is expected to reach about $4 trillion.

Disruptions to shipping through Hormuz have left storage at its lowest for the time of year since 2011. The TTF December contract rose 4.9% to about 102.78 euros, a 4-year high, up 36% in October and 256% year to date.

The KOSPI fell 206.92p to 5,730.74 and the KOSDAQ dropped 3.83% to 724.38. Foreign investors sold about 1.6 trillion won, and a sell-side sidecar was triggered intraday for the 28th time this year. SK Hynix fell 7.08%, Samsung Electro-Mechanics 7.50% and Kia 11.73%, while Samsung Biologics bucked the trend with a gain of 8.86%.

October exports were $115.28 billion (+93.7%), with a trade surplus of $42.5 billion. Semiconductors at $56.44 billion (+259.4%) accounted for 48.9% of the total, and autos also posted an October record of $6.55 billion (+18.1%). Computers jumped 496.6% on server SSDs.

Shares fell to 95,600 won, a 52-week low. Q3 operating profit of 1.8183 trillion won was down 30.9% from the previous quarter and well below the 2.3 trillion won consensus, and the operating margin fell from 8.0% to 5.8%. Weak Middle East sales along with FX and material costs (a 655 billion won drag) were to blame.

The company laid out total shareholder returns of 90 trillion to 110 trillion won for this year, but left out the size and timing of buybacks and cancellations, prompting disappointed selling (-3.02% on 10/30 to 225,000 won). Detailed plans are due in January, and given constraints under the financial-industrial separation law, cancellations focused on preferred shares are being discussed.

The KOSPI fell 16.59% in October and the KOSDAQ 14.76%. Doosan Enerbility (-32.84%) and Hanwha Aerospace (-30.88%) were the two worst-performing large caps, while Celltrion (+7.82%), Samsung Biologics (+6.90%) and Samsung SDI (+5.44%) gained.

Weekly foreign net selling shrank from 11.2395 trillion won (10/12~16) to 719.9 billion won and then 270.3 billion won, but a single-day sale of 1.6 trillion won on 10/30 left their return uncertain. Brokerages' band for this week is 5,700~6,500, and concerns about tighter data center regulation if Democrats take both chambers are a wildcard.

Korea Exchange disclosed for the first time 151 companies (96 on the KOSPI, 55 on the KOSDAQ) with the lowest three-year cumulative PBR. The median PBR is 0.23x, and the list includes Hanwha Life, Hyundai Steel, Lotte Shopping, Lotte Chemical and E-mart. The 34 companies that had submitted improvement plans were excluded.

Revenue of $895 million beat the top of guidance by $25 million and US ARPU rose 53%, yet shares fell to a close of $91.73 (-29.2%). The decline in search-referred users is collateral damage from Alphabet's shift to AI search, which ties it directly to Alphabet's -12% the same week.

Minimum compute commitments of $268.9 billion ($785.8 billion in total including additional TPUs) are orders for counterparties $AMZN, $GOOG and $MSFT but fixed costs for Anthropic. This shows that hyperscaler FCF deficits and credit worries about AI companies are two sides of the same problem.

Commenters added bearish arguments such as "SPY fell 15% over two months after the midterms in Trump's first term" and remarks about striking Iran after the election. This runs directly counter to Korean YouTube channels that emphasize "uncertainty clearing after the election."

About $3.7 billion left on the first day withdrawals resumed, yet BTC held at $77,704 (+0.35%). Community fear and price are out of sync, and the warning to "wait for Monday ETF redemptions" is today's test.

There is talk of tankers earning $1.3 million a day on the Iran war and diesel shortages, but the prevailing caution is that rising newbuild orders are a late-cycle signal. Hanwha Ocean's order for two VLCCs (356.8 billion won) fits the same trend.

An analysis arguing that US DAUq fell from 53.2 million to 50.7 million, logged-out users declined 4%, and Q4 guidance for a double-digit user decline pressured the stock.

An analysis arguing that with SPY up 11% this year, a post-midterm rebound is hard to count on.

About $3.7 billion withdrawn after Binance resumed withdrawals.

An argument that after peaking at $400 in May the stock has fallen below $300 and that "the capex news is already priced in, load up now."

Tanker rates surge on the oil shock from the Iran war, sparking debate over when to buy into shipping stocks.

A self-deprecating meme about leverage losses.

He named "sold out through 2029" and better-than-expected shareholder returns as the keywords for SK Hynix's third quarter. He argued that an inventory-to-sales ratio of 18% (the lowest since 2010) and an operating margin of 79.7% rebut cycle worries with hard numbers, and kept his price target of 3.6 million won. On Alphabet, he said its commitment to cloud investment is strong, but ad revenue missed consensus, raising concerns about its capacity to keep investing. He saw a December Fed hike as already priced in, CPI peaking between year-end and the first quarter of next year, and the clearing of uncertainty after the midterms as positives. While acknowledging overhead supply above Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and the absence of foreign buying as burdens, he recommended buying in installments.

The broadcast aired on the day of SK Hynix's conference call. He diagnosed July's plunge as an explosion of tangled supply and demand and October's correction as a problem of trust. He said foreign investors turned to net buying intraday when shareholder returns came in at 100 trillion won versus an expected 80 trillion won a year. He sees 5,100~5,600 as the KOSPI's bottom-testing zone and expects a W-shaped bottom, adding that a break above the 7,000~7,500 overhead supply zone would open the way to 8,300. His strategy for next year is to hold Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together with IT materials, parts and equipment stocks, which he said are entering a cycle of 50~100% quarter-over-quarter growth starting this quarter.

Citing a WSJ report, it said hyperscalers have been stockpiling NAND at twice Apple's volume, pushing flash prices up about fivefold in a year. Meta, MS and Amazon signed long-term contracts with downside protection with Kioxia, and estimates suggest Apple must pay $25 billion this year for volumes that cost $6 billion last year. Apple raised iPhone prices by 13% on average. The margin focus in Apple's earnings tonight and Korea's October computer (server SSD) exports of +496.6% are the same story.

Citing SEC Form 4 filings, it claimed insiders at Nvidia, Broadcom, Arista and CoreWeave have sold more than $2 billion on the open market since June. Nvidia director Mark Stevens made discretionary sales of about 6.1 million shares ($1.35 billion) through a family trust, and all four stocks now trade below insiders' selling prices (Nvidia's average sale price of $221 vs about $211 now; CoreWeave down from $87 to $54). While cautioning that these may be planned sales, it highlighted zero open-market purchases by Nvidia executives in 2025~2026 as the key signal.

It noted that a bear steepening appeared right after the October FOMC, but the AI stock plunge sparked a flight to safety that pushed yields down and erased the FOMC effect. It said the odds of a December hike slipped from 84% to 74%. It also laid out a tail scenario in which a Democratic House would support a floor under yields through fiscal expansion, while continued AI stock declines could create pressure for quantitative easing.

Brookings' Darrell West cited a Reuters/Ipsos poll in which 64% of Americans said building data centers quickly is not a good thing. It has become a bipartisan issue in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, and some localities have declared 6~12-month moratoriums. He said communities demanding construction fees instead of tax breaks could lower Big Tech's returns on investment.

The guest argued that highly leveraged neoclouds will struggle to operate independently and will be bought cheaply by well-capitalized larger players. He compared it to how big banks grew larger after the SVB crisis, and said the driver of AI investment is state finances and tax support rather than revenue. He recommended paying attention to AI software built on medical and consumer data, which has been overshadowed by semiconductors.

It cited polls showing that most Hispanic voters, nearly half of whom voted for Trump in 2024, will back Democrats this time. The reasons are surging gasoline and diesel prices ($4.69 a gallon in field interviews), the cost of the Iran war at roughly $1 billion a day, and cost-of-living pressures.

Sampro TV covered the government's public rollout of robots (about 1,743 units next year, 15,000 cumulative by 2030), a diagnosis that humanoids are "on the verge of a Cambrian explosion," and DIO's AI implant platform (targeting commercialization in 2027). MTN highlighted that reports of defects in Poland's K2 tanks were rebutted with an operating rate above 95%, easing export risk for Hyundai Rotem. Yahoo Finance's interview with the Starbucks CEO was a declaration of a shift to growth: "the turnaround is over."