Chair Warsh said that of next year's eight meetings, one would drop the rate vote and statement, and the year after, two would be turned into strategy meetings. Reduced forward guidance could make it harder for markets to read signals. The market sees about a 75% chance of a December hike.

The September hike was the first since 2023. President Lagarde said the Governing Council discussed a hike, and the market expects hikes through December. French fiscal and political turmoil is a variable for the bond market.

It assessed that core inflation reached the 2% target for the first time and raised its FY2027 inflation forecast to 2.6%. This is read as a signal of further hikes.

The Nasdaq rose as much as 1.4% and the S&P 500 as much as 1.1% before turning lower. The Dow gained 328 points (+0.6%). October was the Nasdaq's largest monthly drop since March 2025, while the Dow rose nearly 2%. Deutsche Bank moved tech back to overweight from neutral.

Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump prefers a diplomatic end to the conflict and has not decided on military action. IRNA reports that Iran's supreme leader approved talks to end the war, and Qatari mediation, were behind the drop. Brent fell 7–8% to about $104 and WTI to about $96. The WSJ and NYT reported that airstrikes could resume after the 11/3 election.

Easing inflation concerns from the oil plunge pushed the 10-year yield down to 4.89%. It fell about 36bp over October. The market is pricing about a 75% chance of a December rate hike.

The Fed held its policy rate at 3.75–4% on 10/28. Chair Warsh said that of next year's eight meetings, one would drop the vote and statement, and two the following year would be turned into strategy meetings. Critics note that reduced forward guidance could weaken transparency.

Lumentum shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares per share and own about 33% of the combined company. After the announcement, Marvell fell about 12% and Lumentum about 18%. The $115 billion deal size is as stated on CNBC's live page and could not be verified.

The proceeds will fund AI infrastructure expansion. The stock fell as much as 8%, while Stephens upgraded it to overweight with a $213 price target. Amazon kept its capital expenditure guidance of $220 billion, and free cash flow was -$42.2 billion.

Revenue for January–September was $33.24 billion, with a net loss of $104 billion. Most of the net loss comes from fair-value changes on convertible notes and similar instruments. Q3 revenue growth of about 47% slowed from 132% in Q1 and 144% in Q2. Purchase commitments and leases total about $895.4 billion.

JPMorgan sees a 66% chance of a Democratic sweep of both chambers and 26% for a divided Congress with only the House under Democratic control. In a sweep, the S&P 500 could dip slightly or rise modestly, and there is a risk of a tech selloff on AI regulation, though a Trump veto is a variable. With a divided Congress, the S&P 500 could rise 0.5–1%.

Binance resumed withdrawals on Sunday, with $4.65 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, for net outflows of $3.64 billion (2.1% of its $171 billion in total assets). About 95% of the losses have been covered. Circle froze more than $1.1 billion in USDC, and the FBI attributed the attack to North Korean hackers.

The KOSPI closed at 5,859.08 (+2.24%, +128.34p). Institutions were net buyers of KRW 1.2329 trillion, while foreign investors (-KRW 373.1 billion) and individuals (-KRW 1.3475 trillion) sold. SK Hynix +3.81% (KRW 1.472 million) and Samsung Electronics +1.78% (KRW 229,000) led the gains.

The KOSPI opened with a gap down of -92.97p (-1.62%) but rebounded on institutional buying. The won/dollar rate rose KRW 9.5 to KRW 1,343.8, with institutional buying and exporters' dollar selling limiting the gains. Brent oil around $110, a crypto exchange hack and US political uncertainty were cited as lingering risks.

The KOSDAQ rose from 724.38 the previous day to 734.36 (+1.38%). It opened down 1.10% at 716.44, with an intraday high of 738.01. Advancers numbered 1,115 and decliners 553, and trading value was about KRW 4.8 trillion. HLB rose 4.25%, Simmtech 6.08%, and Wartz hit the +29.92% daily limit.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, October exports were $115.28 billion, up 93.7% year over year. Imports were $72.78 billion (+36%), and the trade surplus was $42.5 billion. Cumulative exports for January–October reached $930 billion, topping $900 billion for the first time ever.

Semiconductor exports were $56.44 billion (+259.4%), accounting for 49.0% of total exports. The share in October last year was 26.4%. Memory was $50.14 billion (+360.5%), or 88.8% of chip exports. In monthly terms, this is the second-highest ever after September ($60.3 billion).

Minister of Trade, Industry and Resources Kim Jung-kwan said reaching $1 trillion in annual exports in November is certain. Exports to China were $26.98 billion (+133.6%), to the US $24.9 billion (+185.8%) and to ASEAN $21.33 billion (+128%). Non-chip items also rose 34%, and 18 of the top 20 items increased.

Retail sentiment leans toward fear, but the index fell only 0.10% on the S&P 500. The losses are concentrated in the Nasdaq (-4.37% over five days), while the Dow rose 0.51%. Perceived fear is greater than the index suggests.

Reports of Oracle's $20 billion and Meta weighing at least $20 billion in bonds kept coming, highlighting AI investment's dependence on external funding. Credit markets were also weak, with HYG -0.65% and LQD -0.52%.

A case of AI demand confirmed in corporate revenue. Mentions rose as an earnings standout in a weak market.

DCA investors' reactions coexist with panic comments. This is not a sign of retail money fleeing across the board.

With the Binance hack and Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin deposit/withdrawal suspension overlapping, anxiety over exchange custody was the talk of the forum. There was more discussion of custody methods than of price.

A post saying $700 billion evaporated from US markets in 2.5 hours.

A daily thread. Pessimism and self-mockery dominate, with some posts mockingly hoping for a post-midterm rebound.

Q3 US commercial revenue of $984M (+148%) overtook government revenue of $953M for the first time. US commercial guidance was raised to 143%.

It beat on revenue of $114.48B (consensus $113.39B), EPS of $2.10 (consensus $1.99) and iPhone revenue of $57.58B, but closed at $338.32 (-1.83%) and was about -1% after hours. Market cap is about $5T, and comments note the P/E is the highest since 2007.

It begins from the premise that the Nasdaq is near a three-month low. The optimists cite position clearing, solid earnings, no plans by Alphabet and Amazon to cut capex, and Deutsche Bank's upgrade of the tech sector. The pessimists point to funding. Funds and sovereign wealth funds are "already full" and have cut back, and OpenAI lowered its fundraising target. Recent issuance mentioned included $40 billion of SpaceX debt, $25 billion from Microsoft, $37.5 billion from Meta and $20 billion from Oracle. The Anthropic IPO was named as an inflection-point indicator.

On 10/30 the Nasdaq fell 750 points (about 2.8–2.9%), and the Nasdaq 100 is about 9.5% below its high. The 10-year yield was 4.92%, below 5%. S&P Global changed its outlook on Meta's credit rating from AA stable to negative. The reasons are high capex and negative free cash flow in Q3 (more than -$2 billion, the first deficit), and Meta said it disagrees. The VIX figure on the broadcast (caption "189") appears to be an automatic transcription error, so the 21.38 from market data is used as the basis.

According to Wesleyan Media Project data, a record $187 million was spent in this election cycle on about 300 AI-generated political ads, most of them unlabeled. There is no federal regulation, and four related bills in Congress did not make it out of committee. This is not a comment on market direction, but it reads as a regulatory risk for Big Tech platforms (Meta, Alphabet, X) after the election.

Yahoo Finance posted a video of John Chambers saying he would not bet against Nvidia, and another on OpenAI seeking funding in the Gulf and Anthropic in Japan. ColdFusion posted "Why Apple Seems Confused." The video content could not be verified, so this is title-level information only.